Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran, trader consensus clusters tightly around 25-39 commercial vessel transits per IMF Portwatch data for March 30-April 5, reflecting a recent uptick to 11 vessels on March 28 and at least 20 since then, including Chinese container ships and Iranian-linked tankers granted selective passage. Iran acts as gatekeeper, permitting non-hostile vessels from allies like China and Pakistan while threatening others amid 21 merchant attacks since late February, keeping volumes far below pre-war daily averages of 138. The race stays close due to early-week uncertainty and loitering backlogs; US naval escorts, further reprisals, or diplomatic de-escalation could push totals higher or lower.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)
25-29 19%
30-34 16%
35-39 16%
45+ 16%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
<10
2%
10-14
4%
15-19
13%
20-24
15%
25-29
19%
30-34
16%
35-39
16%
40-44
11%
45+
16%
25-29 19%
30-34 16%
35-39 16%
45+ 16%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
<10
$402 Vol.
2%
10-14
$317 Vol.
4%
15-19
$172 Vol.
13%
20-24
$178 Vol.
15%
25-29
$247 Vol.
19%
30-34
$189 Vol.
16%
35-39
$220 Vol.
16%
40-44
$160 Vol.
11%
45+
$265 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran, trader consensus clusters tightly around 25-39 commercial vessel transits per IMF Portwatch data for March 30-April 5, reflecting a recent uptick to 11 vessels on March 28 and at least 20 since then, including Chinese container ships and Iranian-linked tankers granted selective passage. Iran acts as gatekeeper, permitting non-hostile vessels from allies like China and Pakistan while threatening others amid 21 merchant attacks since late February, keeping volumes far below pre-war daily averages of 138. The race stays close due to early-week uncertainty and loitering backlogs; US naval escorts, further reprisals, or diplomatic de-escalation could push totals higher or lower.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
音量
$2,065終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran, trader consensus clusters tightly around 25-39 commercial vessel transits per IMF Portwatch data for March 30-April 5, reflecting a recent uptick to 11 vessels on March 28 and at least 20 since then, including Chinese container ships and Iranian-linked tankers granted selective passage. Iran acts as gatekeeper, permitting non-hostile vessels from allies like China and Pakistan while threatening others amid 21 merchant attacks since late February, keeping volumes far below pre-war daily averages of 138. The race stays close due to early-week uncertainty and loitering backlogs; US naval escorts, further reprisals, or diplomatic de-escalation could push totals higher or lower.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$2,065終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran, trader consensus clusters tightly around 25-39 commercial vessel transits per IMF Portwatch data for March 30-April 5, reflecting a recent uptick to 11 vessels on March 28 and at least 20 since then, including Chinese container ships and Iranian-linked tankers granted selective passage. Iran acts as gatekeeper, permitting non-hostile vessels from allies like China and Pakistan while threatening others amid 21 merchant attacks since late February, keeping volumes far below pre-war daily averages of 138. The race stays close due to early-week uncertainty and loitering backlogs; US naval escorts, further reprisals, or diplomatic de-escalation could push totals higher or lower.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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