Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, Iranian forces have imposed a partial blockade since early March, attacking merchant ships and barring vessels linked to US allies while permitting transits by China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and others via a controlled northern corridor. President Trump urged about seven nations—including the UK, France, Japan, and South Korea—to deploy warships for escorts in mid-March, but responses remain muted with no public commitments or confirmed naval transits through the narrowest Iran-Oman passage. India's Operation Urja Suraksha recently deployed five warships to guide stranded LPG carriers exiting the strait into the Gulf of Oman, while France consulted 35 countries on March 26 for a potential mission. Escalation risks, including IRGC interdictions as recent as March 27, temper trader expectations ahead of April 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
Apr 30, 2026
アメリカ合衆国
54%
United Kingdom
18%
France
9%
Pakistan
7%
Greece
4%
Japan
4%
India
4%
Italy
4%
Canada
3%
Netherlands
2%
Germany
2%
$4,017 Vol.
アメリカ合衆国
$40 Vol.
54%
United Kingdom
$1,111 Vol.
18%
France
$880 Vol.
9%
Pakistan
$362 Vol.
7%
Greece
$125 Vol.
4%
Japan
$142 Vol.
4%
India
$360 Vol.
4%
Italy
$223 Vol.
4%
Canada
$173 Vol.
3%
Netherlands
$178 Vol.
2%
Germany
$423 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, Iranian forces have imposed a partial blockade since early March, attacking merchant ships and barring vessels linked to US allies while permitting transits by China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and others via a controlled northern corridor. President Trump urged about seven nations—including the UK, France, Japan, and South Korea—to deploy warships for escorts in mid-March, but responses remain muted with no public commitments or confirmed naval transits through the narrowest Iran-Oman passage. India's Operation Urja Suraksha recently deployed five warships to guide stranded LPG carriers exiting the strait into the Gulf of Oman, while France consulted 35 countries on March 26 for a potential mission. Escalation risks, including IRGC interdictions as recent as March 27, temper trader expectations ahead of April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
音量
$4,017終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, Iranian forces have imposed a partial blockade since early March, attacking merchant ships and barring vessels linked to US allies while permitting transits by China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and others via a controlled northern corridor. President Trump urged about seven nations—including the UK, France, Japan, and South Korea—to deploy warships for escorts in mid-March, but responses remain muted with no public commitments or confirmed naval transits through the narrowest Iran-Oman passage. India's Operation Urja Suraksha recently deployed five warships to guide stranded LPG carriers exiting the strait into the Gulf of Oman, while France consulted 35 countries on March 26 for a potential mission. Escalation risks, including IRGC interdictions as recent as March 27, temper trader expectations ahead of April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$4,017終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, Iranian forces have imposed a partial blockade since early March, attacking merchant ships and barring vessels linked to US allies while permitting transits by China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and others via a controlled northern corridor. President Trump urged about seven nations—including the UK, France, Japan, and South Korea—to deploy warships for escorts in mid-March, but responses remain muted with no public commitments or confirmed naval transits through the narrowest Iran-Oman passage. India's Operation Urja Suraksha recently deployed five warships to guide stranded LPG carriers exiting the strait into the Gulf of Oman, while France consulted 35 countries on March 26 for a potential mission. Escalation risks, including IRGC interdictions as recent as March 27, temper trader expectations ahead of April 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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