Mojtaba Khamenei's 67.6% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 stems from his unchallenged appointment by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes the prior month. President Masoud Pezeshkian's May 7 meeting confirmed Mojtaba's robust health, mental sharpness, and direct authority over state matters, countering rumors of frailty or assassination scars amid IRGC consolidation. Traders price in regime continuity and limited clerical challenges, with Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% reflecting faint opposition prospects and no-confidence risks, while other figures like Ghalibaf or Rouhani lack procedural traction or endorsements. Upcoming policy deadlines could test his grip.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 67.6%
レザ・パフラヴィ 8%
国家元首不在 3.1%
アッバース・アラークチー 2.7%
$7,481,794 Vol.
$7,481,794 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
68%
レザ・パフラヴィ
8%
国家元首不在
3%
アッバース・アラークチー
3%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
2%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
1%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 67.6%
レザ・パフラヴィ 8%
国家元首不在 3.1%
アッバース・アラークチー 2.7%
$7,481,794 Vol.
$7,481,794 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$1,852,792 Vol.
68%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$198,676 Vol.
8%
国家元首不在
$416,075 Vol.
3%
アッバース・アラークチー
$136,293 Vol.
3%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$229,811 Vol.
2%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$209,410 Vol.
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$284,416 Vol.
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$800,693 Vol.
1%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$85,384 Vol.
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$279,814 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$760,317 Vol.
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$271,844 Vol.
1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$407,939 Vol.
1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$182,544 Vol.
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$283,099 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$163,752 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$31,748 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$44,367 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$57,363 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$76,669 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$58,440 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$78,862 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$41,061 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$26,556 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$68,407 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$44,426 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$53,513 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$43,833 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$23,526 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$33,409 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's 67.6% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 stems from his unchallenged appointment by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes the prior month. President Masoud Pezeshkian's May 7 meeting confirmed Mojtaba's robust health, mental sharpness, and direct authority over state matters, countering rumors of frailty or assassination scars amid IRGC consolidation. Traders price in regime continuity and limited clerical challenges, with Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% reflecting faint opposition prospects and no-confidence risks, while other figures like Ghalibaf or Rouhani lack procedural traction or endorsements. Upcoming policy deadlines could test his grip.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$7,481,794終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's 67.6% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 stems from his unchallenged appointment by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes the prior month. President Masoud Pezeshkian's May 7 meeting confirmed Mojtaba's robust health, mental sharpness, and direct authority over state matters, countering rumors of frailty or assassination scars amid IRGC consolidation. Traders price in regime continuity and limited clerical challenges, with Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% reflecting faint opposition prospects and no-confidence risks, while other figures like Ghalibaf or Rouhani lack procedural traction or endorsements. Upcoming policy deadlines could test his grip.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$7,481,794終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei's 67.6% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 stems from his unchallenged appointment by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes the prior month. President Masoud Pezeshkian's May 7 meeting confirmed Mojtaba's robust health, mental sharpness, and direct authority over state matters, countering rumors of frailty or assassination scars amid IRGC consolidation. Traders price in regime continuity and limited clerical challenges, with Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% reflecting faint opposition prospects and no-confidence risks, while other figures like Ghalibaf or Rouhani lack procedural traction or endorsements. Upcoming policy deadlines could test his grip.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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