Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 46.9% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by the Assembly of Experts' swift March 2026 appointment following father Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in an Israeli airstrike amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict. Persistent unverified reports of Mojtaba's injuries from subsequent strikes—contradicted by official claims of full health and secure leadership—fuel uncertainty, capping his odds below 50% despite IRGC ties and hereditary precedent. Reza Pahlavi's 13.5% reflects opposition positioning for transitional role if regime fractures under airstrikes, blockades, and prior 2025-2026 protests, while lower probabilities for Ghalibaf and others underscore contested succession amid de-escalation rejections and potential IRGC dominance. Ongoing military actions could rapidly shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 46.0%
レザ・パフラヴィ 14%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 6.9%
ハッサン・ホメイニ 5.4%
$5,005,581 Vol.
$5,005,581 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
46%
レザ・パフラヴィ
14%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
7%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
5%
アリレザ・アラフィ
5%
国家元首不在
5%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
4%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
3%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
<1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 46.0%
レザ・パフラヴィ 14%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 6.9%
ハッサン・ホメイニ 5.4%
$5,005,581 Vol.
$5,005,581 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$916,981 Vol.
46%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$115,608 Vol.
14%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$26,960 Vol.
7%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$599,951 Vol.
5%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$539,611 Vol.
5%
国家元首不在
$306,704 Vol.
5%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$250,019 Vol.
4%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$168,359 Vol.
3%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$44,135 Vol.
1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$70,561 Vol.
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$236,121 Vol.
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$265,685 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$140,598 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$38,167 Vol.
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
$86,923 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$186,452 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$42,973 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$56,322 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$212,314 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$204,603 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$24,010 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$10,293 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$14,637 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$28,953 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$49,573 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$43,680 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$30,941 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$18,610 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$23,535 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$15,471 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 46.9% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by the Assembly of Experts' swift March 2026 appointment following father Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in an Israeli airstrike amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict. Persistent unverified reports of Mojtaba's injuries from subsequent strikes—contradicted by official claims of full health and secure leadership—fuel uncertainty, capping his odds below 50% despite IRGC ties and hereditary precedent. Reza Pahlavi's 13.5% reflects opposition positioning for transitional role if regime fractures under airstrikes, blockades, and prior 2025-2026 protests, while lower probabilities for Ghalibaf and others underscore contested succession amid de-escalation rejections and potential IRGC dominance. Ongoing military actions could rapidly shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$5,005,581終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 46.9% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by the Assembly of Experts' swift March 2026 appointment following father Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in an Israeli airstrike amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict. Persistent unverified reports of Mojtaba's injuries from subsequent strikes—contradicted by official claims of full health and secure leadership—fuel uncertainty, capping his odds below 50% despite IRGC ties and hereditary precedent. Reza Pahlavi's 13.5% reflects opposition positioning for transitional role if regime fractures under airstrikes, blockades, and prior 2025-2026 protests, while lower probabilities for Ghalibaf and others underscore contested succession amid de-escalation rejections and potential IRGC dominance. Ongoing military actions could rapidly shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$5,005,581終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 46.9% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by the Assembly of Experts' swift March 2026 appointment following father Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in an Israeli airstrike amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict. Persistent unverified reports of Mojtaba's injuries from subsequent strikes—contradicted by official claims of full health and secure leadership—fuel uncertainty, capping his odds below 50% despite IRGC ties and hereditary precedent. Reza Pahlavi's 13.5% reflects opposition positioning for transitional role if regime fractures under airstrikes, blockades, and prior 2025-2026 protests, while lower probabilities for Ghalibaf and others underscore contested succession amid de-escalation rejections and potential IRGC dominance. Ongoing military actions could rapidly shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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