Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48% implied probability to succeed as Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his father's advanced age of 85, persistent health rumors, and reported behind-the-scenes influence over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Guardian Council. Recent public appearances by Ali Khamenei, including a November 2024 meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian, have eased immediate transition fears but not dispelled long-term succession speculation among Assembly of Experts members. Reza Pahlavi's 13.5% share captures diaspora-backed monarchist hopes amid ongoing economic sanctions, inflation, and sporadic protests, though regime stability and crackdowns limit internal upheaval risks. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran's October missile strikes on Israel and U.S. election outcomes, add uncertainty without near-term catalysts for change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 48.3%
レザ・パフラヴィ 14%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 7.3%
国家元首不在 4.4%
$4,649,742 Vol.
$4,649,742 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
48%
レザ・パフラヴィ
14%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
7%
国家元首不在
4%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
4%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
3%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
3%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
1%
アッバース・アラークチー
1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 48.3%
レザ・パフラヴィ 14%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 7.3%
国家元首不在 4.4%
$4,649,742 Vol.
$4,649,742 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$885,621 Vol.
48%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$114,853 Vol.
14%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$25,445 Vol.
7%
国家元首不在
$206,144 Vol.
4%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$574,462 Vol.
4%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$167,337 Vol.
3%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$176,886 Vol.
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$431,587 Vol.
3%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$212,048 Vol.
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$43,490 Vol.
1%
アッバース・アラークチー
$86,292 Vol.
1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$69,867 Vol.
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$185,983 Vol.
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$235,731 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$140,061 Vol.
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$265,200 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$42,538 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$35,707 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$204,145 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$48,953 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$55,594 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$14,282 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$43,055 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$23,493 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$17,925 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$28,363 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$23,024 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$14,886 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$30,503 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$9,407 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48% implied probability to succeed as Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his father's advanced age of 85, persistent health rumors, and reported behind-the-scenes influence over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Guardian Council. Recent public appearances by Ali Khamenei, including a November 2024 meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian, have eased immediate transition fears but not dispelled long-term succession speculation among Assembly of Experts members. Reza Pahlavi's 13.5% share captures diaspora-backed monarchist hopes amid ongoing economic sanctions, inflation, and sporadic protests, though regime stability and crackdowns limit internal upheaval risks. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran's October missile strikes on Israel and U.S. election outcomes, add uncertainty without near-term catalysts for change.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$4,649,742終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48% implied probability to succeed as Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his father's advanced age of 85, persistent health rumors, and reported behind-the-scenes influence over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Guardian Council. Recent public appearances by Ali Khamenei, including a November 2024 meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian, have eased immediate transition fears but not dispelled long-term succession speculation among Assembly of Experts members. Reza Pahlavi's 13.5% share captures diaspora-backed monarchist hopes amid ongoing economic sanctions, inflation, and sporadic protests, though regime stability and crackdowns limit internal upheaval risks. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran's October missile strikes on Israel and U.S. election outcomes, add uncertainty without near-term catalysts for change.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$4,649,742終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48% implied probability to succeed as Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his father's advanced age of 85, persistent health rumors, and reported behind-the-scenes influence over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Guardian Council. Recent public appearances by Ali Khamenei, including a November 2024 meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian, have eased immediate transition fears but not dispelled long-term succession speculation among Assembly of Experts members. Reza Pahlavi's 13.5% share captures diaspora-backed monarchist hopes amid ongoing economic sanctions, inflation, and sporadic protests, though regime stability and crackdowns limit internal upheaval risks. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran's October missile strikes on Israel and U.S. election outcomes, add uncertainty without near-term catalysts for change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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