Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.6% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Iran by March 31, anchored by the Biden administration's consistent policy of restraint and targeted strikes limited to Iran-backed proxies rather than direct action on Iranian territory. In recent weeks, U.S. airstrikes have focused on Houthi targets in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria in response to attacks on American forces and shipping, but official statements emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader escalation. Indirect diplomatic talks via Oman persist without breakthroughs on Iran's nuclear program or regional proxies, while domestic political costs, war fatigue from prior conflicts, and competing priorities like Ukraine aid and China tensions deter invasion. No military mobilizations or congressional authorizations signal intent, though a major Iranian provocation could shift dynamics before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$3,537,002 Vol.
$3,537,002 Vol.
はい
$3,537,002 Vol.
$3,537,002 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Feb 18, 2026, 5:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.6% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Iran by March 31, anchored by the Biden administration's consistent policy of restraint and targeted strikes limited to Iran-backed proxies rather than direct action on Iranian territory. In recent weeks, U.S. airstrikes have focused on Houthi targets in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria in response to attacks on American forces and shipping, but official statements emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader escalation. Indirect diplomatic talks via Oman persist without breakthroughs on Iran's nuclear program or regional proxies, while domestic political costs, war fatigue from prior conflicts, and competing priorities like Ukraine aid and China tensions deter invasion. No military mobilizations or congressional authorizations signal intent, though a major Iranian provocation could shift dynamics before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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