Trader consensus favors 4–5 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 44.3%, reflecting its depleted naval capabilities after U.S. strikes obliterated much of the IRGC Navy, leaving primarily fast-attack boats for limited operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday's Iranian gunfire hitting at least two Indian-flagged vessels—prompting India's diplomatic protest—as Tehran redeclared the strait closed over failed U.S. ceasefire commitments marks the first confirmed attacks since March 30, sustaining modest escalation risks. With U.S. forces expanding worldwide targeting of Iran-linked vessels and mixed de-escalation signals like recent Hormuz reopening claims, traders anticipate 2–3 more sporadic strikes amid blockade tensions, keeping higher tallies like 10+ below 15%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4〜5 45.3%
2～3 30%
6～7 12.5%
10+ 12.0%
$74,017 Vol.
$74,017 Vol.
2026/04/30
2～3
30%
4〜5
45%
6～7
13%
8〜9
7%
10+
12%
4〜5 45.3%
2～3 30%
6～7 12.5%
10+ 12.0%
$74,017 Vol.
$74,017 Vol.
2026/04/30
2～3
$15,473 Vol.
30%
4〜5
$16,358 Vol.
45%
6～7
$5,004 Vol.
13%
8〜9
$8,049 Vol.
7%
10+
$4,402 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 4–5 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 44.3%, reflecting its depleted naval capabilities after U.S. strikes obliterated much of the IRGC Navy, leaving primarily fast-attack boats for limited operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday's Iranian gunfire hitting at least two Indian-flagged vessels—prompting India's diplomatic protest—as Tehran redeclared the strait closed over failed U.S. ceasefire commitments marks the first confirmed attacks since March 30, sustaining modest escalation risks. With U.S. forces expanding worldwide targeting of Iran-linked vessels and mixed de-escalation signals like recent Hormuz reopening claims, traders anticipate 2–3 more sporadic strikes amid blockade tensions, keeping higher tallies like 10+ below 15%.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
音量
$74,017終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 4–5 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 44.3%, reflecting its depleted naval capabilities after U.S. strikes obliterated much of the IRGC Navy, leaving primarily fast-attack boats for limited operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday's Iranian gunfire hitting at least two Indian-flagged vessels—prompting India's diplomatic protest—as Tehran redeclared the strait closed over failed U.S. ceasefire commitments marks the first confirmed attacks since March 30, sustaining modest escalation risks. With U.S. forces expanding worldwide targeting of Iran-linked vessels and mixed de-escalation signals like recent Hormuz reopening claims, traders anticipate 2–3 more sporadic strikes amid blockade tensions, keeping higher tallies like 10+ below 15%.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$74,017終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 4–5 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 44.3%, reflecting its depleted naval capabilities after U.S. strikes obliterated much of the IRGC Navy, leaving primarily fast-attack boats for limited operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday's Iranian gunfire hitting at least two Indian-flagged vessels—prompting India's diplomatic protest—as Tehran redeclared the strait closed over failed U.S. ceasefire commitments marks the first confirmed attacks since March 30, sustaining modest escalation risks. With U.S. forces expanding worldwide targeting of Iran-linked vessels and mixed de-escalation signals like recent Hormuz reopening claims, traders anticipate 2–3 more sporadic strikes amid blockade tensions, keeping higher tallies like 10+ below 15%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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