Ongoing diplomatic talks in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese delegations, which began on May 17, represent the primary driver shaping trader assessments of Israeli withdrawal timelines from southern Lebanon. These negotiations focus on security arrangements, border delineation, prisoner exchanges, and phased Lebanese Armed Forces deployment south of the Litani River under the framework of prior U.S.-brokered ceasefires and UN resolutions. Recent Israeli displacement orders for villages near the Blue Line and continued military operations have reinforced positions at select sites, while U.S. efforts emphasize de-escalation to advance reciprocal steps toward Hezbollah disarmament. With UNIFIL's mandate set to conclude by December 2026, outcomes hinge on verifiable compliance with withdrawal commitments and enforcement mechanisms amid persistent regional tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,575,982 Vol.
2026/06/30
5月31日
1%
6月30日
8%
$1,575,982 Vol.
5月31日
$1,268,257 Vol.
1%
6月30日
$232,719 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing diplomatic talks in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese delegations, which began on May 17, represent the primary driver shaping trader assessments of Israeli withdrawal timelines from southern Lebanon. These negotiations focus on security arrangements, border delineation, prisoner exchanges, and phased Lebanese Armed Forces deployment south of the Litani River under the framework of prior U.S.-brokered ceasefires and UN resolutions. Recent Israeli displacement orders for villages near the Blue Line and continued military operations have reinforced positions at select sites, while U.S. efforts emphasize de-escalation to advance reciprocal steps toward Hezbollah disarmament. With UNIFIL's mandate set to conclude by December 2026, outcomes hinge on verifiable compliance with withdrawal commitments and enforcement mechanisms amid persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$1,575,982終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing diplomatic talks in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese delegations, which began on May 17, represent the primary driver shaping trader assessments of Israeli withdrawal timelines from southern Lebanon. These negotiations focus on security arrangements, border delineation, prisoner exchanges, and phased Lebanese Armed Forces deployment south of the Litani River under the framework of prior U.S.-brokered ceasefires and UN resolutions. Recent Israeli displacement orders for villages near the Blue Line and continued military operations have reinforced positions at select sites, while U.S. efforts emphasize de-escalation to advance reciprocal steps toward Hezbollah disarmament. With UNIFIL's mandate set to conclude by December 2026, outcomes hinge on verifiable compliance with withdrawal commitments and enforcement mechanisms amid persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$1,575,982終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic talks in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese delegations, which began on May 17, represent the primary driver shaping trader assessments of Israeli withdrawal timelines from southern Lebanon. These negotiations focus on security arrangements, border delineation, prisoner exchanges, and phased Lebanese Armed Forces deployment south of the Litani River under the framework of prior U.S.-brokered ceasefires and UN resolutions. Recent Israeli displacement orders for villages near the Blue Line and continued military operations have reinforced positions at select sites, while U.S. efforts emphasize de-escalation to advance reciprocal steps toward Hezbollah disarmament. With UNIFIL's mandate set to conclude by December 2026, outcomes hinge on verifiable compliance with withdrawal commitments and enforcement mechanisms amid persistent regional tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問