Ongoing negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain centered on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, sanctions relief, and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following the February 2026 military exchanges and the fragile Pakistan-mediated ceasefire that took effect in early April. Recent proposal exchanges in May have highlighted core gaps, with the United States rejecting Iranian demands for comprehensive war termination, compensation, and sanctions removal while Iran continues to seek security guarantees and limits on Israeli operations in Lebanon. President Trump has described the truce as on life support amid intermittent incidents and naval tensions, though both sides maintain diplomatic channels and have signaled openness to phased talks that could extend the pause. These developments sustain trader caution on the near-term likelihood of a formal permanent bilateral peace accord.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$978,545 Vol.
2026/05/31
May 31
2%
6月30日
15%
$978,545 Vol.
May 31
$308,439 Vol.
2%
6月30日
$355,491 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain centered on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, sanctions relief, and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following the February 2026 military exchanges and the fragile Pakistan-mediated ceasefire that took effect in early April. Recent proposal exchanges in May have highlighted core gaps, with the United States rejecting Iranian demands for comprehensive war termination, compensation, and sanctions removal while Iran continues to seek security guarantees and limits on Israeli operations in Lebanon. President Trump has described the truce as on life support amid intermittent incidents and naval tensions, though both sides maintain diplomatic channels and have signaled openness to phased talks that could extend the pause. These developments sustain trader caution on the near-term likelihood of a formal permanent bilateral peace accord.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
音量
$978,545終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain centered on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, sanctions relief, and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following the February 2026 military exchanges and the fragile Pakistan-mediated ceasefire that took effect in early April. Recent proposal exchanges in May have highlighted core gaps, with the United States rejecting Iranian demands for comprehensive war termination, compensation, and sanctions removal while Iran continues to seek security guarantees and limits on Israeli operations in Lebanon. President Trump has described the truce as on life support amid intermittent incidents and naval tensions, though both sides maintain diplomatic channels and have signaled openness to phased talks that could extend the pause. These developments sustain trader caution on the near-term likelihood of a formal permanent bilateral peace accord.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$978,545終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain centered on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, sanctions relief, and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following the February 2026 military exchanges and the fragile Pakistan-mediated ceasefire that took effect in early April. Recent proposal exchanges in May have highlighted core gaps, with the United States rejecting Iranian demands for comprehensive war termination, compensation, and sanctions removal while Iran continues to seek security guarantees and limits on Israeli operations in Lebanon. President Trump has described the truce as on life support amid intermittent incidents and naval tensions, though both sides maintain diplomatic channels and have signaled openness to phased talks that could extend the pause. These developments sustain trader caution on the near-term likelihood of a formal permanent bilateral peace accord.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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