Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in an Israeli airstrike on February 28, his son Mojtaba was appointed successor by the Assembly of Experts in early March, marking a rapid leadership transition amid escalating US-Israeli military actions. Mojtaba has made no public appearances since, prompting unverified reports of injury or incapacitation from follow-on strikes, though Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokespeople, affirm his good health and attribute delays to wartime conditions. Recent IRGC moves to assert de facto control over government functions, amid economic collapse and internal rifts, heighten uncertainty around regime stability. Upcoming public statements or diplomatic developments could clarify succession dynamics and shift trader consensus on further changes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$6,040,860 Vol.
2026/04/30
4月30日
10%
5月31日
18%
6月30日
23%
12月31日
34%
$6,040,860 Vol.
4月30日
$1,639,826 Vol.
10%
5月31日
$74,767 Vol.
18%
6月30日
$38,577 Vol.
23%
12月31日
$1,057,996 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in an Israeli airstrike on February 28, his son Mojtaba was appointed successor by the Assembly of Experts in early March, marking a rapid leadership transition amid escalating US-Israeli military actions. Mojtaba has made no public appearances since, prompting unverified reports of injury or incapacitation from follow-on strikes, though Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokespeople, affirm his good health and attribute delays to wartime conditions. Recent IRGC moves to assert de facto control over government functions, amid economic collapse and internal rifts, heighten uncertainty around regime stability. Upcoming public statements or diplomatic developments could clarify succession dynamics and shift trader consensus on further changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
音量
$6,040,860終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in an Israeli airstrike on February 28, his son Mojtaba was appointed successor by the Assembly of Experts in early March, marking a rapid leadership transition amid escalating US-Israeli military actions. Mojtaba has made no public appearances since, prompting unverified reports of injury or incapacitation from follow-on strikes, though Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokespeople, affirm his good health and attribute delays to wartime conditions. Recent IRGC moves to assert de facto control over government functions, amid economic collapse and internal rifts, heighten uncertainty around regime stability. Upcoming public statements or diplomatic developments could clarify succession dynamics and shift trader consensus on further changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$6,040,860終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in an Israeli airstrike on February 28, his son Mojtaba was appointed successor by the Assembly of Experts in early March, marking a rapid leadership transition amid escalating US-Israeli military actions. Mojtaba has made no public appearances since, prompting unverified reports of injury or incapacitation from follow-on strikes, though Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokespeople, affirm his good health and attribute delays to wartime conditions. Recent IRGC moves to assert de facto control over government functions, amid economic collapse and internal rifts, heighten uncertainty around regime stability. Upcoming public statements or diplomatic developments could clarify succession dynamics and shift trader consensus on further changes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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