Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire prospects remain dim amid Israel's ongoing ground offensive in southern Lebanon, intensified after the September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, which degraded the group's rocket capabilities and command structure. Recent airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and Hezbollah retaliation barrages underscore persistent escalation, with no breakthroughs in US, French, or Qatar-mediated diplomacy demanding Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701. Israel's rejection of a proposed 60-day truce reflects insistence on security guarantees before de-escalation. Incoming Trump administration signals and potential Gaza truce linkages could influence talks, but military operations continue absent major diplomatic shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$360,611 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
3月31日
2%
6月30日
42%
4月30日
19%
$360,611 Vol.
3月31日
$321,784 Vol.
2%
6月30日
$37,948 Vol.
42%
4月30日
$879 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire prospects remain dim amid Israel's ongoing ground offensive in southern Lebanon, intensified after the September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, which degraded the group's rocket capabilities and command structure. Recent airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and Hezbollah retaliation barrages underscore persistent escalation, with no breakthroughs in US, French, or Qatar-mediated diplomacy demanding Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701. Israel's rejection of a proposed 60-day truce reflects insistence on security guarantees before de-escalation. Incoming Trump administration signals and potential Gaza truce linkages could influence talks, but military operations continue absent major diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
音量
$360,611終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire prospects remain dim amid Israel's ongoing ground offensive in southern Lebanon, intensified after the September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, which degraded the group's rocket capabilities and command structure. Recent airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and Hezbollah retaliation barrages underscore persistent escalation, with no breakthroughs in US, French, or Qatar-mediated diplomacy demanding Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701. Israel's rejection of a proposed 60-day truce reflects insistence on security guarantees before de-escalation. Incoming Trump administration signals and potential Gaza truce linkages could influence talks, but military operations continue absent major diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
音量
$360,611終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire prospects remain dim amid Israel's ongoing ground offensive in southern Lebanon, intensified after the September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, which degraded the group's rocket capabilities and command structure. Recent airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and Hezbollah retaliation barrages underscore persistent escalation, with no breakthroughs in US, French, or Qatar-mediated diplomacy demanding Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701. Israel's rejection of a proposed 60-day truce reflects insistence on security guarantees before de-escalation. Incoming Trump administration signals and potential Gaza truce linkages could influence talks, but military operations continue absent major diplomatic shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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