Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, has repeatedly signaled readiness to return to Iran amid escalating U.S.-Israel military actions against the Islamic Republic and surging internal unrest, including a brutal crackdown with over 650 executions since January 2026. In his March 28 CPAC address, he urged the Trump administration to "stay the course" and pledged to lead a post-regime transition, even visiting before the regime falls. Trader consensus prices a slim 1% chance of entry by April 30, rising modestly to 7% by June 30 and 18% by year-end, reflecting persistent security risks from IRGC threats, absence of confirmed travel plans, and the regime's firm territorial control despite weakening. Ongoing airstrikes, proxy conflicts, and potential diplomatic shifts could catalyze a breakthrough.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$13,184,065 Vol.
2026/04/30
4月30日
2%
5月31日
4%
6月30日
7%
12月31日
18%
$13,184,065 Vol.
4月30日
$482,774 Vol.
2%
5月31日
$112,042 Vol.
4%
6月30日
$2,359,580 Vol.
7%
12月31日
$683,700 Vol.
18%
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, has repeatedly signaled readiness to return to Iran amid escalating U.S.-Israel military actions against the Islamic Republic and surging internal unrest, including a brutal crackdown with over 650 executions since January 2026. In his March 28 CPAC address, he urged the Trump administration to "stay the course" and pledged to lead a post-regime transition, even visiting before the regime falls. Trader consensus prices a slim 1% chance of entry by April 30, rising modestly to 7% by June 30 and 18% by year-end, reflecting persistent security risks from IRGC threats, absence of confirmed travel plans, and the regime's firm territorial control despite weakening. Ongoing airstrikes, proxy conflicts, and potential diplomatic shifts could catalyze a breakthrough.
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 11:58 AM ET
音量
$13,184,065終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 11:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, has repeatedly signaled readiness to return to Iran amid escalating U.S.-Israel military actions against the Islamic Republic and surging internal unrest, including a brutal crackdown with over 650 executions since January 2026. In his March 28 CPAC address, he urged the Trump administration to "stay the course" and pledged to lead a post-regime transition, even visiting before the regime falls. Trader consensus prices a slim 1% chance of entry by April 30, rising modestly to 7% by June 30 and 18% by year-end, reflecting persistent security risks from IRGC threats, absence of confirmed travel plans, and the regime's firm territorial control despite weakening. Ongoing airstrikes, proxy conflicts, and potential diplomatic shifts could catalyze a breakthrough.
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$13,184,065終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 11:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, has repeatedly signaled readiness to return to Iran amid escalating U.S.-Israel military actions against the Islamic Republic and surging internal unrest, including a brutal crackdown with over 650 executions since January 2026. In his March 28 CPAC address, he urged the Trump administration to "stay the course" and pledged to lead a post-regime transition, even visiting before the regime falls. Trader consensus prices a slim 1% chance of entry by April 30, rising modestly to 7% by June 30 and 18% by year-end, reflecting persistent security risks from IRGC threats, absence of confirmed travel plans, and the regime's firm territorial control despite weakening. Ongoing airstrikes, proxy conflicts, and potential diplomatic shifts could catalyze a breakthrough.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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