Trader consensus prices an 85.5% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz and Fordow, alongside assassinations of key leaders including Supreme Leader Khamenei, which suspended indirect talks mediated by Oman. Earlier February Geneva sessions showed Iran's flexibility on downblending stockpiles and IAEA oversight but clashed with US red lines demanding zero uranium enrichment, full dismantlement, and stockpile transfer—positions Iran views as infringing its NPT rights. March developments feature Iranian parliamentary rejections of negotiations, demands for reparations and US base closures, and Trump's threats to seize oil assets, amid stalled Pakistan-mediated general diplomacy with no nuclear-specific resumption scheduled, underscoring deep mistrust and active conflict barriers to agreement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$120,372 Vol.
$120,372 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
はい
$120,372 Vol.
$120,372 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices an 85.5% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz and Fordow, alongside assassinations of key leaders including Supreme Leader Khamenei, which suspended indirect talks mediated by Oman. Earlier February Geneva sessions showed Iran's flexibility on downblending stockpiles and IAEA oversight but clashed with US red lines demanding zero uranium enrichment, full dismantlement, and stockpile transfer—positions Iran views as infringing its NPT rights. March developments feature Iranian parliamentary rejections of negotiations, demands for reparations and US base closures, and Trump's threats to seize oil assets, amid stalled Pakistan-mediated general diplomacy with no nuclear-specific resumption scheduled, underscoring deep mistrust and active conflict barriers to agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
音量
$120,372終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices an 85.5% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz and Fordow, alongside assassinations of key leaders including Supreme Leader Khamenei, which suspended indirect talks mediated by Oman. Earlier February Geneva sessions showed Iran's flexibility on downblending stockpiles and IAEA oversight but clashed with US red lines demanding zero uranium enrichment, full dismantlement, and stockpile transfer—positions Iran views as infringing its NPT rights. March developments feature Iranian parliamentary rejections of negotiations, demands for reparations and US base closures, and Trump's threats to seize oil assets, amid stalled Pakistan-mediated general diplomacy with no nuclear-specific resumption scheduled, underscoring deep mistrust and active conflict barriers to agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$120,372終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 85.5% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz and Fordow, alongside assassinations of key leaders including Supreme Leader Khamenei, which suspended indirect talks mediated by Oman. Earlier February Geneva sessions showed Iran's flexibility on downblending stockpiles and IAEA oversight but clashed with US red lines demanding zero uranium enrichment, full dismantlement, and stockpile transfer—positions Iran views as infringing its NPT rights. March developments feature Iranian parliamentary rejections of negotiations, demands for reparations and US base closures, and Trump's threats to seize oil assets, amid stalled Pakistan-mediated general diplomacy with no nuclear-specific resumption scheduled, underscoring deep mistrust and active conflict barriers to agreement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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