Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by escalating military actions and stalled nuclear diplomacy. Israeli strikes hit Iran's Natanz enrichment facility on March 21 and Arak heavy-water plant on March 27, with a projectile incident at Bushehr on March 24, signaling no de-escalation path. The US presented a 15-point framework on March 25 demanding zero domestic enrichment and handover of stockpiles—demands Iran deems unacceptable, per prior rejections of similar zero-enrichment proposals. IAEA's February 27 report highlighted unverified high-enriched uranium storage at Isfahan and blocked inspections, confirming ongoing activities amid absent talks. Upcoming IAEA board meetings in early April could influence sentiment, but current hostilities favor non-resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$137,226 Vol.
$137,226 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$137,226 Vol.
$137,226 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by escalating military actions and stalled nuclear diplomacy. Israeli strikes hit Iran's Natanz enrichment facility on March 21 and Arak heavy-water plant on March 27, with a projectile incident at Bushehr on March 24, signaling no de-escalation path. The US presented a 15-point framework on March 25 demanding zero domestic enrichment and handover of stockpiles—demands Iran deems unacceptable, per prior rejections of similar zero-enrichment proposals. IAEA's February 27 report highlighted unverified high-enriched uranium storage at Isfahan and blocked inspections, confirming ongoing activities amid absent talks. Upcoming IAEA board meetings in early April could influence sentiment, but current hostilities favor non-resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
音量
$137,226終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by escalating military actions and stalled nuclear diplomacy. Israeli strikes hit Iran's Natanz enrichment facility on March 21 and Arak heavy-water plant on March 27, with a projectile incident at Bushehr on March 24, signaling no de-escalation path. The US presented a 15-point framework on March 25 demanding zero domestic enrichment and handover of stockpiles—demands Iran deems unacceptable, per prior rejections of similar zero-enrichment proposals. IAEA's February 27 report highlighted unverified high-enriched uranium storage at Isfahan and blocked inspections, confirming ongoing activities amid absent talks. Upcoming IAEA board meetings in early April could influence sentiment, but current hostilities favor non-resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$137,226終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by escalating military actions and stalled nuclear diplomacy. Israeli strikes hit Iran's Natanz enrichment facility on March 21 and Arak heavy-water plant on March 27, with a projectile incident at Bushehr on March 24, signaling no de-escalation path. The US presented a 15-point framework on March 25 demanding zero domestic enrichment and handover of stockpiles—demands Iran deems unacceptable, per prior rejections of similar zero-enrichment proposals. IAEA's February 27 report highlighted unverified high-enriched uranium storage at Isfahan and blocked inspections, confirming ongoing activities amid absent talks. Upcoming IAEA board meetings in early April could influence sentiment, but current hostilities favor non-resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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