Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 72%, driven by stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman and Iran's defiant expansion of its uranium enrichment program. The IAEA Board of Governors censured Iran on June 12 for non-cooperation and undeclared nuclear material, prompting Tehran to announce installation of advanced centrifuges and boost 60% enriched uranium stockpiles to near-weapons-grade levels—enough for multiple bombs if further processed. Iran's presidential election first round on June 28 elevated reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, but Supreme Leader Khamenei retains control over foreign policy and nuclear issues, with no signals of capitulation before the June 30 deadline. Ongoing sanctions and regional tensions, including Israel-Iran exchanges, reinforce skepticism of any sudden agreement to halt enrichment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$136,931 Vol.
$136,931 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$136,931 Vol.
$136,931 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 72%, driven by stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman and Iran's defiant expansion of its uranium enrichment program. The IAEA Board of Governors censured Iran on June 12 for non-cooperation and undeclared nuclear material, prompting Tehran to announce installation of advanced centrifuges and boost 60% enriched uranium stockpiles to near-weapons-grade levels—enough for multiple bombs if further processed. Iran's presidential election first round on June 28 elevated reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, but Supreme Leader Khamenei retains control over foreign policy and nuclear issues, with no signals of capitulation before the June 30 deadline. Ongoing sanctions and regional tensions, including Israel-Iran exchanges, reinforce skepticism of any sudden agreement to halt enrichment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
音量
$136,931終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 72%, driven by stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman and Iran's defiant expansion of its uranium enrichment program. The IAEA Board of Governors censured Iran on June 12 for non-cooperation and undeclared nuclear material, prompting Tehran to announce installation of advanced centrifuges and boost 60% enriched uranium stockpiles to near-weapons-grade levels—enough for multiple bombs if further processed. Iran's presidential election first round on June 28 elevated reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, but Supreme Leader Khamenei retains control over foreign policy and nuclear issues, with no signals of capitulation before the June 30 deadline. Ongoing sanctions and regional tensions, including Israel-Iran exchanges, reinforce skepticism of any sudden agreement to halt enrichment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$136,931終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 72%, driven by stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman and Iran's defiant expansion of its uranium enrichment program. The IAEA Board of Governors censured Iran on June 12 for non-cooperation and undeclared nuclear material, prompting Tehran to announce installation of advanced centrifuges and boost 60% enriched uranium stockpiles to near-weapons-grade levels—enough for multiple bombs if further processed. Iran's presidential election first round on June 28 elevated reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, but Supreme Leader Khamenei retains control over foreign policy and nuclear issues, with no signals of capitulation before the June 30 deadline. Ongoing sanctions and regional tensions, including Israel-Iran exchanges, reinforce skepticism of any sudden agreement to halt enrichment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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