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イラン、4月30日までにウラン濃縮を終わらせることで合意?

Market icon

イラン、4月30日までにウラン濃縮を終わらせることで合意?

はい

18% chance
Polymarket

$132,567 Vol.

はい

18% chance
Polymarket

$132,567 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations amid the February 2026 war have stalled on core demands for Iran to end all uranium enrichment and surrender enriched stockpiles, with Trump administration officials stating Tehran refuses zero-enrichment on its soil despite severe damage to Natanz and Fordow facilities from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. IAEA reports from late February confirm inability to verify any suspension of enrichment activities, while Netanyahu claimed March 19 that Iran lacks capacity following strikes. Recent pauses in attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and extended deadlines announced March 26-27 reflect diplomatic maneuvering, but traders' 82% "No" consensus reflects Iran's hardened posture, historical resistance to full nuclear curbs, and absence of public commitments, with April 30 barriers including unresolved sanctions relief and verification disputes.

Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations amid the February 2026 war have stalled on core demands for Iran to end all uranium enrichment and surrender enriched stockpiles, with Trump administration officials stating Tehran refuses zero-enrichment on its soil despite severe damage to Natanz and Fordow facilities from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. IAEA reports from late February confirm inability to verify any suspension of enrichment activities, while Netanyahu claimed March 19 that Iran lacks capacity following strikes. Recent pauses in attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and extended deadlines announced March 26-27 reflect diplomatic maneuvering, but traders' 82% "No" consensus reflects Iran's hardened posture, historical resistance to full nuclear curbs, and absence of public commitments, with April 30 barriers including unresolved sanctions relief and verification disputes.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations amid the February 2026 war have stalled on core demands for Iran to end all uranium enrichment and surrender enriched stockpiles, with Trump administration officials stating Tehran refuses zero-enrichment on its soil despite severe damage to Natanz and Fordow facilities from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. IAEA reports from late February confirm inability to verify any suspension of enrichment activities, while Netanyahu claimed March 19 that Iran lacks capacity following strikes. Recent pauses in attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and extended deadlines announced March 26-27 reflect diplomatic maneuvering, but traders' 82% "No" consensus reflects Iran's hardened posture, historical resistance to full nuclear curbs, and absence of public commitments, with April 30 barriers including unresolved sanctions relief and verification disputes.

Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations amid the February 2026 war have stalled on core demands for Iran to end all uranium enrichment and surrender enriched stockpiles, with Trump administration officials stating Tehran refuses zero-enrichment on its soil despite severe damage to Natanz and Fordow facilities from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. IAEA reports from late February confirm inability to verify any suspension of enrichment activities, while Netanyahu claimed March 19 that Iran lacks capacity following strikes. Recent pauses in attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and extended deadlines announced March 26-27 reflect diplomatic maneuvering, but traders' 82% "No" consensus reflects Iran's hardened posture, historical resistance to full nuclear curbs, and absence of public commitments, with April 30 barriers including unresolved sanctions relief and verification disputes.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「イラン、4月30日までにウラン濃縮を終わらせることで合意?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イランは4月30日までにウラン濃縮を終了することに同意しましたか?」で18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、18¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に18%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イラン、4月30日までにウラン濃縮を終わらせることで合意?」は$132.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Mar 6, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イラン、4月30日までにウラン濃縮を終わらせることで合意?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「イラン、4月30日までにウラン濃縮を終わらせることで合意?」の現在のフロントランナーは「イランは4月30日までにウラン濃縮を終了することに同意しましたか?」で18%であり、市場がこの結果に18%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イラン、4月30日までにウラン濃縮を終わらせることで合意?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。