Trader consensus prices "No" at 81.5% for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear talks and hardened positions amid escalating military tensions. The US presented a 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, halt enrichment, and surrender highly enriched uranium stockpiles—estimated by IAEA at over 440 kg of 60% purity—but Tehran continues reviewing without commitment. Recent Israel-US airstrikes on Natanz enrichment facility on March 21, coupled with Iran's denial of IAEA access per the February 27 safeguards report, signal non-compliance and low diplomatic prospects before the deadline. Upcoming deadlines, like a potential April 6 extension on strikes, add pressure but underscore barriers to consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$131,963 Vol.
$131,963 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
はい
$131,963 Vol.
$131,963 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 81.5% for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear talks and hardened positions amid escalating military tensions. The US presented a 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, halt enrichment, and surrender highly enriched uranium stockpiles—estimated by IAEA at over 440 kg of 60% purity—but Tehran continues reviewing without commitment. Recent Israel-US airstrikes on Natanz enrichment facility on March 21, coupled with Iran's denial of IAEA access per the February 27 safeguards report, signal non-compliance and low diplomatic prospects before the deadline. Upcoming deadlines, like a potential April 6 extension on strikes, add pressure but underscore barriers to consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
音量
$131,963終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 81.5% for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear talks and hardened positions amid escalating military tensions. The US presented a 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, halt enrichment, and surrender highly enriched uranium stockpiles—estimated by IAEA at over 440 kg of 60% purity—but Tehran continues reviewing without commitment. Recent Israel-US airstrikes on Natanz enrichment facility on March 21, coupled with Iran's denial of IAEA access per the February 27 safeguards report, signal non-compliance and low diplomatic prospects before the deadline. Upcoming deadlines, like a potential April 6 extension on strikes, add pressure but underscore barriers to consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$131,980終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 81.5% for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear talks and hardened positions amid escalating military tensions. The US presented a 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, halt enrichment, and surrender highly enriched uranium stockpiles—estimated by IAEA at over 440 kg of 60% purity—but Tehran continues reviewing without commitment. Recent Israel-US airstrikes on Natanz enrichment facility on March 21, coupled with Iran's denial of IAEA access per the February 27 safeguards report, signal non-compliance and low diplomatic prospects before the deadline. Upcoming deadlines, like a potential April 6 extension on strikes, add pressure but underscore barriers to consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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