In the fifth week of the US-Israel war against Iran that began February 28, trader consensus tilts slightly to "No" at 54.5% implied probability for Israeli military action targeting an Iranian power plant by April 30, driven by unverified Iranian claims of a March 27 strike on such infrastructure alongside confirmed Israeli hits on nuclear sites like Yazd uranium facilities and Khondab heavy water complex, plus steel plants. Israel's emphasis on weapons production targets, coupled with President Trump's 10-day suspension of energy infrastructure strikes until April 6 amid Strait of Hormuz negotiations, fosters restraint amid daily airstrikes and Iranian missile barrages. Escalation via IRGC retaliation or post-pause expansion could shift odds to "Yes," while diplomatic breakthroughs or sustained de-escalation favor "No."