Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects subdued near-term odds for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by recent Iranian missile and drone barrages on UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other GCC infrastructure since February 28, which have prompted joint condemnations labeling the attacks an "existential threat" and signals of offensive readiness. This escalation has embedded a geopolitical risk premium into energy markets, pushing Brent crude futures above $105 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions threatening 20% of global supply. De-escalation hopes hinge on US-Iran talks following a 10-day suspension of strikes on Iranian energy assets, with Gulf leaders urging sustained pressure on Tehran's missile capabilities; watch for renewed Iranian strikes or April FOMC commentary on inflation passthrough risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
16%
April 30
28%
$118 Vol.
April 15
$94 Vol.
16%
April 30
$24 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects subdued near-term odds for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by recent Iranian missile and drone barrages on UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other GCC infrastructure since February 28, which have prompted joint condemnations labeling the attacks an "existential threat" and signals of offensive readiness. This escalation has embedded a geopolitical risk premium into energy markets, pushing Brent crude futures above $105 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions threatening 20% of global supply. De-escalation hopes hinge on US-Iran talks following a 10-day suspension of strikes on Iranian energy assets, with Gulf leaders urging sustained pressure on Tehran's missile capabilities; watch for renewed Iranian strikes or April FOMC commentary on inflation passthrough risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
音量
$118終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects subdued near-term odds for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by recent Iranian missile and drone barrages on UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other GCC infrastructure since February 28, which have prompted joint condemnations labeling the attacks an "existential threat" and signals of offensive readiness. This escalation has embedded a geopolitical risk premium into energy markets, pushing Brent crude futures above $105 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions threatening 20% of global supply. De-escalation hopes hinge on US-Iran talks following a 10-day suspension of strikes on Iranian energy assets, with Gulf leaders urging sustained pressure on Tehran's missile capabilities; watch for renewed Iranian strikes or April FOMC commentary on inflation passthrough risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$118終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects subdued near-term odds for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by recent Iranian missile and drone barrages on UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other GCC infrastructure since February 28, which have prompted joint condemnations labeling the attacks an "existential threat" and signals of offensive readiness. This escalation has embedded a geopolitical risk premium into energy markets, pushing Brent crude futures above $105 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions threatening 20% of global supply. De-escalation hopes hinge on US-Iran talks following a 10-day suspension of strikes on Iranian energy assets, with Gulf leaders urging sustained pressure on Tehran's missile capabilities; watch for renewed Iranian strikes or April FOMC commentary on inflation passthrough risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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