Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites—sparing nuclear facilities like Fordow—followed Iran's October 1 barrage of over 200 missiles at Israel, maintaining a tense de-escalation amid US warnings against broader conflict. Iran persists in enriching uranium to 60% purity at Fordow, nearing weapons-grade levels per recent IAEA inspections, prompting Israeli vows to prevent a nuclear breakout through potential military action. Diplomatic channels remain open via Qatar-mediated talks on Gaza ceasefires, while the US presidential election on November 5 could alter Washington's Israel support and Iran sanctions policy, influencing strike probabilities. No confirmed plans for Fordow strikes have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$540,103 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月31日
9%
$540,103 Vol.
3月31日
$540,103 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
音量
$540,103終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$540,103終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites—sparing nuclear facilities like Fordow—followed Iran's October 1 barrage of over 200 missiles at Israel, maintaining a tense de-escalation amid US warnings against broader conflict. Iran persists in enriching uranium to 60% purity at Fordow, nearing weapons-grade levels per recent IAEA inspections, prompting Israeli vows to prevent a nuclear breakout through potential military action. Diplomatic channels remain open via Qatar-mediated talks on Gaza ceasefires, while the US presidential election on November 5 could alter Washington's Israel support and Iran sanctions policy, influencing strike probabilities. No confirmed plans for Fordow strikes have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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