Next leader out of power before 2027?
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 27%
Orbán - Hungary PM 27%
Merz - German Chancellor 9.3%
Starmer - UK PM 9%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
27%
Orbán - Hungary PM
27%
Merz - German Chancellor
9%
Starmer - UK PM
9%
Lecornu - France PM
9%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
5%
Trump - USA President
5%
Abbas - President of Palestine
5%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
4%
None before 2027
3%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
3%
Newsom - California Governor
3%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
3%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
3%
Putin - Russia President
3%
Petro - Colombia President
2%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
2%
Macron - France President
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
2%
Takaichi - Japan PM
2%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
2%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
2%
Milei - Argentina President
2%
Albanese - Australia PM
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 27%
Orbán - Hungary PM 27%
Merz - German Chancellor 9.3%
Starmer - UK PM 9%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
27%
Orbán - Hungary PM
27%
Merz - German Chancellor
9%
Starmer - UK PM
9%
Lecornu - France PM
9%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
5%
Trump - USA President
5%
Abbas - President of Palestine
5%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
4%
None before 2027
3%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
3%
Newsom - California Governor
3%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
3%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
3%
Putin - Russia President
3%
Petro - Colombia President
2%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
2%
Macron - France President
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
2%
Takaichi - Japan PM
2%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
2%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
2%
Milei - Argentina President
2%
Albanese - Australia PM
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日: Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...
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