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icon for 次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？

次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？

icon for 次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？

次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？

Ended: 12月 31

Ended: 12月 31

オルバン - ハンガリー首相 100.0%

マクロン - フランス大統領 <1%

エルドアン - トルコ大統領 <1%

金正恩 - 北朝鮮最高指導者 <1%

Polymarket

$7,806,956 Vol.

オルバン - ハンガリー首相 100.0%

マクロン - フランス大統領 <1%

エルドアン - トルコ大統領 <1%

金正恩 - 北朝鮮最高指導者 <1%

Polymarket

$7,806,956 Vol.

マクロン - フランス大統領

$213,458 Vol.

いいえ

エルドアン - トルコ大統領

$239,209 Vol.

いいえ

金正恩 - 北朝鮮最高指導者

$101,156 Vol.

いいえ

習近平 - 中国共産党総書記

$195,472 Vol.

いいえ

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相

$1,230,676 Vol.

いいえ

アルバニージー - オーストラリア首相

$142,333 Vol.

いいえ

ニューサム - カリフォルニア州知事

$442,120 Vol.

いいえ

ミレイ - アルゼンチン大統領

$137,493 Vol.

いいえ

スターマー - 英国首相

$831,259 Vol.

いいえ

トランプ - アメリカ大統領

$387,579 Vol.

いいえ

ゼレンスキー - ウクライナ大統領

$217,105 Vol.

いいえ

プーチン - ロシア大統領

$528,047 Vol.

いいえ

ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ - ブラジル大統領

$194,780 Vol.

いいえ

ルコルニュ - フランス首相

$242,031 Vol.

いいえ

高市 - 日本の首相

$544,114 Vol.

いいえ

アッバース - パレスチナ大統領

$306,689 Vol.

いいえ

メルツ - ドイツ首相

$158,538 Vol.

いいえ

サンチェス - スペイン首相

$245,667 Vol.

いいえ

シェインバウム - メキシコ大統領

$151,579 Vol.

いいえ

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領

$258,098 Vol.

いいえ

ペトロ - コロンビア大統領

$173,912 Vol.

いいえ

オルバン - ハンガリー首相

$304,381 Vol.

はい

ロドリゲス - ベネズエラ代理大統領

$178,755 Vol.

いいえ

アル＝シャラー - シリア大統領

$156,344 Vol.

いいえ

2027年以前なし

$226,160 Vol.

いいえ

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Viktor Orbán's landslide defeat in Hungary's April 12, 2026, parliamentary election, where Péter Magyar's pro-EU Tisza party secured a two-thirds supermajority, has driven trader consensus to near-certainty that he is the next leader out of power before 2027. Orbán conceded the loss of his 16-year Fidesz-led government, resigned party leadership, relinquished his parliamentary seat on April 25, and watched Magyar sworn in as prime minister this week, confirming the power transition amid low economic growth and corruption scandals that eroded his support. With Tisza's dominant mandate enabling constitutional changes, reversal scenarios like successful legal challenges or snap elections appear improbable absent extraordinary developments.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$7,806,956
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Viktor Orbán's landslide defeat in Hungary's April 12, 2026, parliamentary election, where Péter Magyar's pro-EU Tisza party secured a two-thirds supermajority, has driven trader consensus to near-certainty that he is the next leader out of power before 2027. Orbán conceded the loss of his 16-year Fidesz-led government, resigned party leadership, relinquished his parliamentary seat on April 25, and watched Magyar sworn in as prime minister this week, confirming the power transition amid low economic growth and corruption scandals that eroded his support. With Tisza's dominant mandate enabling constitutional changes, reversal scenarios like successful legal challenges or snap elections appear improbable absent extraordinary developments.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$7,806,956
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」はPolymarket上の25個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「オルバン - ハンガリー首相」で100%、次いで「マクロン - フランス大統領」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」は$7.8 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 3, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている25個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「オルバン - ハンガリー首相」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「マクロン - フランス大統領」で0%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。