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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 27%

Orbán - Hungary PM 27%

Merz - German Chancellor 9.3%

Starmer - UK PM 9%

Polymarket
NEW

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 27%

Orbán - Hungary PM 27%

Merz - German Chancellor 9.3%

Starmer - UK PM 9%

Polymarket
NEW

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$1,192 Vol.

27%

Orbán - Hungary PM

$1,041 Vol.

27%

Merz - German Chancellor

$0 Vol.

9%

Starmer - UK PM

$0 Vol.

9%

Lecornu - France PM

$0 Vol.

9%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$0 Vol.

5%

Trump - USA President

$0 Vol.

5%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$0 Vol.

5%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$0 Vol.

4%

None before 2027

$0 Vol.

3%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$0 Vol.

3%

Newsom - California Governor

$0 Vol.

3%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$0 Vol.

3%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$0 Vol.

3%

Putin - Russia President

$1,660 Vol.

3%

Petro - Colombia President

$0 Vol.

2%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$0 Vol.

2%

Macron - France President

$896 Vol.

2%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$1,396 Vol.

2%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$896 Vol.

2%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$0 Vol.

2%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$0 Vol.

2%

Milei - Argentina President

$0 Vol.

2%

Albanese - Australia PM

$0 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$895 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$7,975
終了日
Dec 31, 2026
マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 27%, followed by "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.