Trader consensus prices a 90% chance China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by end-2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations like amphibious force buildups or mass mobilizations amid persistent US deterrence. Following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's October 10 National Day speech reaffirming the status quo, Beijing issued verbal condemnations and conducted routine PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ—over 100 in September alone—but stopped short of escalation signals. Recent US arms sales exceeding $2 billion, alliances like AUKUS and QUAD, and Taiwan's hardening defenses raise invasion costs, while economic ties including TSMC's semiconductors deter action. No major diplomatic breakdowns or military posturing shifts have emerged in the past 30 days, though US election outcomes or sudden cross-strait incidents could prompt volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$14,047,216 Vol.
$14,047,216 Vol.
はい
$14,047,216 Vol.
$14,047,216 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
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0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
リゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices a 90% chance China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by end-2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations like amphibious force buildups or mass mobilizations amid persistent US deterrence. Following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's October 10 National Day speech reaffirming the status quo, Beijing issued verbal condemnations and conducted routine PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ—over 100 in September alone—but stopped short of escalation signals. Recent US arms sales exceeding $2 billion, alliances like AUKUS and QUAD, and Taiwan's hardening defenses raise invasion costs, while economic ties including TSMC's semiconductors deter action. No major diplomatic breakdowns or military posturing shifts have emerged in the past 30 days, though US election outcomes or sudden cross-strait incidents could prompt volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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