Ukraine's ongoing martial law, extended by parliament until early May 2026, constitutionally bars presidential elections, maintaining President Zelenskyy's position beyond his formal term end. In March 2026, the Central Election Commission ruled fair voting impossible until six months after a ceasefire, defying U.S. pressure from the Trump administration linking polls to peace negotiations with Russia. With active frontline fighting—including recent Russian claims of full Luhansk control—hostilities persist without de-escalation signals. Traders watch for parliament's next 90-day martial law extension vote around May, alongside any diplomatic breakthroughs, as these procedural and military factors dominate election scheduling prospects.