U.S. intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released in mid-March, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027, favoring unification through non-military coercion amid PLA readiness gaps, economic headwinds, and recent purges. This assessment has driven trader consensus toward an 85.5% implied probability of no invasion, reflecting the absence of invasion indicators despite ongoing gray-zone PLA military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan extended its Han Kuang wargames to 14 days as of April 2, simulating full-scale attack responses, while U.S. deterrence and alliances like AUKUS bolster defenses. Escalation risks persist from diplomatic tensions or U.S. distractions in the Middle East, but no major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2027/06/30
新規
新規
2027/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released in mid-March, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027, favoring unification through non-military coercion amid PLA readiness gaps, economic headwinds, and recent purges. This assessment has driven trader consensus toward an 85.5% implied probability of no invasion, reflecting the absence of invasion indicators despite ongoing gray-zone PLA military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan extended its Han Kuang wargames to 14 days as of April 2, simulating full-scale attack responses, while U.S. deterrence and alliances like AUKUS bolster defenses. Escalation risks persist from diplomatic tensions or U.S. distractions in the Middle East, but no major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
音量
$1,456終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released in mid-March, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027, favoring unification through non-military coercion amid PLA readiness gaps, economic headwinds, and recent purges. This assessment has driven trader consensus toward an 85.5% implied probability of no invasion, reflecting the absence of invasion indicators despite ongoing gray-zone PLA military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan extended its Han Kuang wargames to 14 days as of April 2, simulating full-scale attack responses, while U.S. deterrence and alliances like AUKUS bolster defenses. Escalation risks persist from diplomatic tensions or U.S. distractions in the Middle East, but no major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$1,456終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released in mid-March, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027, favoring unification through non-military coercion amid PLA readiness gaps, economic headwinds, and recent purges. This assessment has driven trader consensus toward an 85.5% implied probability of no invasion, reflecting the absence of invasion indicators despite ongoing gray-zone PLA military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan extended its Han Kuang wargames to 14 days as of April 2, simulating full-scale attack responses, while U.S. deterrence and alliances like AUKUS bolster defenses. Escalation risks persist from diplomatic tensions or U.S. distractions in the Middle East, but no major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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