Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, driven by persistent but contained grey-zone tensions around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Chinese coast guard vessels set a record with nearly daily patrols in 2025 and continued incursions into early 2026, prompting Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles and discreet advisories for fishermen to avoid the area amid clash fears. Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's post-election comments on potential military intervention over Taiwan elicited Beijing's diplomatic protests, export bans on dual-use goods, and radar locks on Japanese aircraft, yet both sides have maintained restraint short of kinetic escalation. Ongoing military purges in China's Rocket Force and U.S. backing for Tokyo further deter direct confrontation, aligning with historical patterns of flare-ups without war.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$509,848 Vol.
$509,848 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$509,848 Vol.
$509,848 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, driven by persistent but contained grey-zone tensions around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Chinese coast guard vessels set a record with nearly daily patrols in 2025 and continued incursions into early 2026, prompting Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles and discreet advisories for fishermen to avoid the area amid clash fears. Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's post-election comments on potential military intervention over Taiwan elicited Beijing's diplomatic protests, export bans on dual-use goods, and radar locks on Japanese aircraft, yet both sides have maintained restraint short of kinetic escalation. Ongoing military purges in China's Rocket Force and U.S. backing for Tokyo further deter direct confrontation, aligning with historical patterns of flare-ups without war.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
音量
$509,848終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, driven by persistent but contained grey-zone tensions around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Chinese coast guard vessels set a record with nearly daily patrols in 2025 and continued incursions into early 2026, prompting Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles and discreet advisories for fishermen to avoid the area amid clash fears. Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's post-election comments on potential military intervention over Taiwan elicited Beijing's diplomatic protests, export bans on dual-use goods, and radar locks on Japanese aircraft, yet both sides have maintained restraint short of kinetic escalation. Ongoing military purges in China's Rocket Force and U.S. backing for Tokyo further deter direct confrontation, aligning with historical patterns of flare-ups without war.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$509,848終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, driven by persistent but contained grey-zone tensions around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Chinese coast guard vessels set a record with nearly daily patrols in 2025 and continued incursions into early 2026, prompting Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles and discreet advisories for fishermen to avoid the area amid clash fears. Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's post-election comments on potential military intervention over Taiwan elicited Beijing's diplomatic protests, export bans on dual-use goods, and radar locks on Japanese aircraft, yet both sides have maintained restraint short of kinetic escalation. Ongoing military purges in China's Rocket Force and U.S. backing for Tokyo further deter direct confrontation, aligning with historical patterns of flare-ups without war.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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