Trader consensus favors a prolonged handshake of 15 seconds or more at 40% implied probability for the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14-15, reflecting historical precedents like their nearly 30-second greeting in October 2025 and Trump's signature extended handshakes with world leaders. Recent confirmation of the rescheduled date—delayed from late March due to the Iran conflict—has boosted expectations of a formal bilateral meeting amid ongoing U.S.-China negotiations on tariffs, fentanyl, and Taiwan, following preparatory talks in Paris earlier this month. Shorter durations and no-handshake outcomes trail as traders anticipate positive diplomatic signaling, though tensions from mutual trade probes could influence the gesture's warmth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日15秒以上 40%
6～10秒 21%
10～15秒 20%
2〜6秒 11%
$39,667 Vol.
$39,667 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
握手なし
5%
2秒未満
3%
2〜6秒
11%
6～10秒
21%
10～15秒
20%
15秒以上
40%
写真のみ
2%
15秒以上 40%
6～10秒 21%
10～15秒 20%
2〜6秒 11%
$39,667 Vol.
$39,667 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
握手なし
$8,990 Vol.
5%
2秒未満
$4,750 Vol.
3%
2〜6秒
$8,659 Vol.
11%
6～10秒
$3,198 Vol.
21%
10～15秒
$0 Vol.
20%
15秒以上
$5,268 Vol.
40%
写真のみ
$8,802 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.Trader consensus favors a prolonged handshake of 15 seconds or more at 40% implied probability for the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14-15, reflecting historical precedents like their nearly 30-second greeting in October 2025 and Trump's signature extended handshakes with world leaders. Recent confirmation of the rescheduled date—delayed from late March due to the Iran conflict—has boosted expectations of a formal bilateral meeting amid ongoing U.S.-China negotiations on tariffs, fentanyl, and Taiwan, following preparatory talks in Paris earlier this month. Shorter durations and no-handshake outcomes trail as traders anticipate positive diplomatic signaling, though tensions from mutual trade probes could influence the gesture's warmth.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
マーケット開始日： Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
音量
$39,667終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.Trader consensus favors a prolonged handshake of 15 seconds or more at 40% implied probability for the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14-15, reflecting historical precedents like their nearly 30-second greeting in October 2025 and Trump's signature extended handshakes with world leaders. Recent confirmation of the rescheduled date—delayed from late March due to the Iran conflict—has boosted expectations of a formal bilateral meeting amid ongoing U.S.-China negotiations on tariffs, fentanyl, and Taiwan, following preparatory talks in Paris earlier this month. Shorter durations and no-handshake outcomes trail as traders anticipate positive diplomatic signaling, though tensions from mutual trade probes could influence the gesture's warmth.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
音量
$39,667終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors a prolonged handshake of 15 seconds or more at 40% implied probability for the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14-15, reflecting historical precedents like their nearly 30-second greeting in October 2025 and Trump's signature extended handshakes with world leaders. Recent confirmation of the rescheduled date—delayed from late March due to the Iran conflict—has boosted expectations of a formal bilateral meeting amid ongoing U.S.-China negotiations on tariffs, fentanyl, and Taiwan, following preparatory talks in Paris earlier this month. Shorter durations and no-handshake outcomes trail as traders anticipate positive diplomatic signaling, though tensions from mutual trade probes could influence the gesture's warmth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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