Trader consensus favors a handshake exceeding 15 seconds at 43.5% implied probability for the longest filmed exchange during the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing, driven by precedent from their October 2025 Busan meeting where the grip lasted nearly 30 seconds amid tariff deal talks. Recent White House confirmation of the delayed dates—postponed from March due to U.S. operations in Iran—and President Trump's April remarks hailing smooth coordination with President Xi, including quips about a "warm welcome," signal diplomatic rapport likely to yield an extended gesture signaling stability in bilateral relations ahead of trade discussions. Shorter durations and no-handshake options trail as traders weigh historical patterns against potential protocol shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日15秒以上 45%
10～15秒 26%
6～10秒 16%
2〜6秒 9%
$70,718 Vol.
$70,718 Vol.
2026/12/31
握手なし
6%
2秒未満
4%
2〜6秒
9%
6～10秒
16%
10～15秒
26%
15秒以上
45%
写真のみ
2%
15秒以上 45%
10～15秒 26%
6～10秒 16%
2〜6秒 9%
$70,718 Vol.
$70,718 Vol.
2026/12/31
握手なし
$11,708 Vol.
6%
2秒未満
$14,050 Vol.
4%
2〜6秒
$11,654 Vol.
9%
6～10秒
$4,504 Vol.
16%
10～15秒
$4,296 Vol.
26%
15秒以上
$11,466 Vol.
45%
写真のみ
$13,041 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.Trader consensus favors a handshake exceeding 15 seconds at 43.5% implied probability for the longest filmed exchange during the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing, driven by precedent from their October 2025 Busan meeting where the grip lasted nearly 30 seconds amid tariff deal talks. Recent White House confirmation of the delayed dates—postponed from March due to U.S. operations in Iran—and President Trump's April remarks hailing smooth coordination with President Xi, including quips about a "warm welcome," signal diplomatic rapport likely to yield an extended gesture signaling stability in bilateral relations ahead of trade discussions. Shorter durations and no-handshake options trail as traders weigh historical patterns against potential protocol shifts.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
マーケット開始日： Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
音量
$70,718終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.Trader consensus favors a handshake exceeding 15 seconds at 43.5% implied probability for the longest filmed exchange during the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing, driven by precedent from their October 2025 Busan meeting where the grip lasted nearly 30 seconds amid tariff deal talks. Recent White House confirmation of the delayed dates—postponed from March due to U.S. operations in Iran—and President Trump's April remarks hailing smooth coordination with President Xi, including quips about a "warm welcome," signal diplomatic rapport likely to yield an extended gesture signaling stability in bilateral relations ahead of trade discussions. Shorter durations and no-handshake options trail as traders weigh historical patterns against potential protocol shifts.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
音量
$70,718終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors a handshake exceeding 15 seconds at 43.5% implied probability for the longest filmed exchange during the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing, driven by precedent from their October 2025 Busan meeting where the grip lasted nearly 30 seconds amid tariff deal talks. Recent White House confirmation of the delayed dates—postponed from March due to U.S. operations in Iran—and President Trump's April remarks hailing smooth coordination with President Xi, including quips about a "warm welcome," signal diplomatic rapport likely to yield an extended gesture signaling stability in bilateral relations ahead of trade discussions. Shorter durations and no-handshake options trail as traders weigh historical patterns against potential protocol shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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