Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no prison sentence for Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia before 2027, driven by the lack of progress toward formal charges or trial since China's Defense Ministry announced his investigation for serious violations of discipline and law on January 24, 2026. This development, capping Xi Jinping's sweeping anti-corruption purge of People's Liberation Army (PLA) leadership—including prior probes of generals like Liu Zhenli—has yielded no public updates on judicial proceedings in the three months since, underscoring the opacity of elite-level cases where internal party expulsion often replaces transparent sentencing. Historical precedents for top CMC officials reinforce trader skepticism, though a sudden indictment or political escalation could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$106,816 Vol.
$106,816 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$106,816 Vol.
$106,816 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no prison sentence for Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia before 2027, driven by the lack of progress toward formal charges or trial since China's Defense Ministry announced his investigation for serious violations of discipline and law on January 24, 2026. This development, capping Xi Jinping's sweeping anti-corruption purge of People's Liberation Army (PLA) leadership—including prior probes of generals like Liu Zhenli—has yielded no public updates on judicial proceedings in the three months since, underscoring the opacity of elite-level cases where internal party expulsion often replaces transparent sentencing. Historical precedents for top CMC officials reinforce trader skepticism, though a sudden indictment or political escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
音量
$106,816終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no prison sentence for Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia before 2027, driven by the lack of progress toward formal charges or trial since China's Defense Ministry announced his investigation for serious violations of discipline and law on January 24, 2026. This development, capping Xi Jinping's sweeping anti-corruption purge of People's Liberation Army (PLA) leadership—including prior probes of generals like Liu Zhenli—has yielded no public updates on judicial proceedings in the three months since, underscoring the opacity of elite-level cases where internal party expulsion often replaces transparent sentencing. Historical precedents for top CMC officials reinforce trader skepticism, though a sudden indictment or political escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$106,816終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no prison sentence for Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia before 2027, driven by the lack of progress toward formal charges or trial since China's Defense Ministry announced his investigation for serious violations of discipline and law on January 24, 2026. This development, capping Xi Jinping's sweeping anti-corruption purge of People's Liberation Army (PLA) leadership—including prior probes of generals like Liu Zhenli—has yielded no public updates on judicial proceedings in the three months since, underscoring the opacity of elite-level cases where internal party expulsion often replaces transparent sentencing. Historical precedents for top CMC officials reinforce trader skepticism, though a sudden indictment or political escalation could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問