Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable military mobilization signals amid robust US deterrence, including arms sales, naval transits through the Taiwan Strait, and alliances like AUKUS. Recent PLA exercises, such as the October 2024 "Joint Sword" drills following President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech, concluded without escalation and mirror routine gray-zone tactics rather than amphibious assault preparations. Beijing's economic challenges and focus on domestic stability further dampen aggression risks, while experts cite logistical hurdles for a cross-strait operation. Potential shifters include Taiwan independence declarations, major South China Sea clashes, or shifts in US commitment post-2024 election, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$1,813,480 Vol.
$1,813,480 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$1,813,480 Vol.
$1,813,480 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable military mobilization signals amid robust US deterrence, including arms sales, naval transits through the Taiwan Strait, and alliances like AUKUS. Recent PLA exercises, such as the October 2024 "Joint Sword" drills following President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech, concluded without escalation and mirror routine gray-zone tactics rather than amphibious assault preparations. Beijing's economic challenges and focus on domestic stability further dampen aggression risks, while experts cite logistical hurdles for a cross-strait operation. Potential shifters include Taiwan independence declarations, major South China Sea clashes, or shifts in US commitment post-2024 election, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
音量
$1,813,480終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable military mobilization signals amid robust US deterrence, including arms sales, naval transits through the Taiwan Strait, and alliances like AUKUS. Recent PLA exercises, such as the October 2024 "Joint Sword" drills following President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech, concluded without escalation and mirror routine gray-zone tactics rather than amphibious assault preparations. Beijing's economic challenges and focus on domestic stability further dampen aggression risks, while experts cite logistical hurdles for a cross-strait operation. Potential shifters include Taiwan independence declarations, major South China Sea clashes, or shifts in US commitment post-2024 election, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$1,813,480終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable military mobilization signals amid robust US deterrence, including arms sales, naval transits through the Taiwan Strait, and alliances like AUKUS. Recent PLA exercises, such as the October 2024 "Joint Sword" drills following President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech, concluded without escalation and mirror routine gray-zone tactics rather than amphibious assault preparations. Beijing's economic challenges and focus on domestic stability further dampen aggression risks, while experts cite logistical hurdles for a cross-strait operation. Potential shifters include Taiwan independence declarations, major South China Sea clashes, or shifts in US commitment post-2024 election, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問