Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with the government's official target of 4.5–5.0% set during the March National People's Congress—the lowest in decades amid property sector weakness and decelerating exports. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year, beating forecasts of 4.8% and signaling resilience from strong exports despite global risks like the Iran conflict, but analysts from IMF (4.4%), ADB (4.6%), and Vanguard (4.7%) anticipate moderation to around 4.5–4.7% for the full year due to subdued domestic demand and limited fiscal stimulus, with bond quotas held steady. A 24% chance on 5.0–6.0% reflects potential upside if Q1 momentum persists, while higher bands face structural headwinds. Q2 data due soon could shift probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.0～5.0％ 71%
5.0〜6.0％ 25.9%
6.0～7.0％ 2.1%
3.0～4.0％ 1.5%
$527,253 Vol.
$527,253 Vol.
2026/01/31
1.0％未満
<1%
1.0〜2.0％
<1%
2.0～3.0％
<1%
3.0～4.0％
2%
4.0～5.0％
71%
5.0〜6.0％
26%
6.0～7.0％
2%
7.0～8.0％
<1%
8.0～9.0％
<1%
9.0％以上
<1%
4.0～5.0％ 71%
5.0〜6.0％ 25.9%
6.0～7.0％ 2.1%
3.0～4.0％ 1.5%
$527,253 Vol.
$527,253 Vol.
2026/01/31
1.0％未満
$41,400 Vol.
<1%
1.0〜2.0％
$40,586 Vol.
<1%
2.0～3.0％
$20,992 Vol.
<1%
3.0～4.0％
$43,365 Vol.
2%
4.0～5.0％
$135,713 Vol.
71%
5.0〜6.0％
$49,082 Vol.
26%
6.0～7.0％
$47,950 Vol.
2%
7.0～8.0％
$44,456 Vol.
<1%
8.0～9.0％
$20,174 Vol.
<1%
9.0％以上
$83,534 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with the government's official target of 4.5–5.0% set during the March National People's Congress—the lowest in decades amid property sector weakness and decelerating exports. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year, beating forecasts of 4.8% and signaling resilience from strong exports despite global risks like the Iran conflict, but analysts from IMF (4.4%), ADB (4.6%), and Vanguard (4.7%) anticipate moderation to around 4.5–4.7% for the full year due to subdued domestic demand and limited fiscal stimulus, with bond quotas held steady. A 24% chance on 5.0–6.0% reflects potential upside if Q1 momentum persists, while higher bands face structural headwinds. Q2 data due soon could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
音量
$527,253終了日
2026/01/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with the government's official target of 4.5–5.0% set during the March National People's Congress—the lowest in decades amid property sector weakness and decelerating exports. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year, beating forecasts of 4.8% and signaling resilience from strong exports despite global risks like the Iran conflict, but analysts from IMF (4.4%), ADB (4.6%), and Vanguard (4.7%) anticipate moderation to around 4.5–4.7% for the full year due to subdued domestic demand and limited fiscal stimulus, with bond quotas held steady. A 24% chance on 5.0–6.0% reflects potential upside if Q1 momentum persists, while higher bands face structural headwinds. Q2 data due soon could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$527,253終了日
2026/01/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with the government's official target of 4.5–5.0% set during the March National People's Congress—the lowest in decades amid property sector weakness and decelerating exports. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year, beating forecasts of 4.8% and signaling resilience from strong exports despite global risks like the Iran conflict, but analysts from IMF (4.4%), ADB (4.6%), and Vanguard (4.7%) anticipate moderation to around 4.5–4.7% for the full year due to subdued domestic demand and limited fiscal stimulus, with bond quotas held steady. A 24% chance on 5.0–6.0% reflects potential upside if Q1 momentum persists, while higher bands face structural headwinds. Q2 data due soon could shift probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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