Polymarket traders assign 35% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.6–0.8% quarter-on-quarter, narrowly ahead of 1.2%+ at 29%, highlighting razor-thin margins amid dueling domestic and external demand signals. Q3 2025 GDP expanded 0.7% qoq, buoyed by export resilience from a depreciated yen (USD/JPY near 153) but dragged by stagnant private consumption despite real wage growth turning positive in August. Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% in the October 31 meeting, with minutes revealing internal divisions on hike timing as core CPI cooled to 2.3% in September. Competitive dynamics hinge on Q4 flash GDP in January 2026 and BOJ's December outlook report, where capex momentum could tip toward higher bins or holiday spending weakness toward lower ones.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0.6〜0.8% 35%
1.2％以上 29%
0.3〜0.5％ 28%
0.0～0.2％ 27%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
-0.4％以下
23%
-0.3～-0.1％
23%
0.0～0.2％
27%
0.3〜0.5％
28%
0.6〜0.8%
35%
0.9～1.1％
25%
1.2％以上
29%
0.6〜0.8% 35%
1.2％以上 29%
0.3〜0.5％ 28%
0.0～0.2％ 27%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
-0.4％以下
$0 Vol.
23%
-0.3～-0.1％
$0 Vol.
23%
0.0～0.2％
$0 Vol.
27%
0.3〜0.5％
$0 Vol.
28%
0.6〜0.8%
$7 Vol.
35%
0.9～1.1％
$0 Vol.
25%
1.2％以上
$0 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders assign 35% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.6–0.8% quarter-on-quarter, narrowly ahead of 1.2%+ at 29%, highlighting razor-thin margins amid dueling domestic and external demand signals. Q3 2025 GDP expanded 0.7% qoq, buoyed by export resilience from a depreciated yen (USD/JPY near 153) but dragged by stagnant private consumption despite real wage growth turning positive in August. Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% in the October 31 meeting, with minutes revealing internal divisions on hike timing as core CPI cooled to 2.3% in September. Competitive dynamics hinge on Q4 flash GDP in January 2026 and BOJ's December outlook report, where capex momentum could tip toward higher bins or holiday spending weakness toward lower ones.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
マーケット開始日： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
音量
$7終了日
May 19, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders assign 35% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.6–0.8% quarter-on-quarter, narrowly ahead of 1.2%+ at 29%, highlighting razor-thin margins amid dueling domestic and external demand signals. Q3 2025 GDP expanded 0.7% qoq, buoyed by export resilience from a depreciated yen (USD/JPY near 153) but dragged by stagnant private consumption despite real wage growth turning positive in August. Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% in the October 31 meeting, with minutes revealing internal divisions on hike timing as core CPI cooled to 2.3% in September. Competitive dynamics hinge on Q4 flash GDP in January 2026 and BOJ's December outlook report, where capex momentum could tip toward higher bins or holiday spending weakness toward lower ones.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
音量
$7終了日
May 19, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign 35% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.6–0.8% quarter-on-quarter, narrowly ahead of 1.2%+ at 29%, highlighting razor-thin margins amid dueling domestic and external demand signals. Q3 2025 GDP expanded 0.7% qoq, buoyed by export resilience from a depreciated yen (USD/JPY near 153) but dragged by stagnant private consumption despite real wage growth turning positive in August. Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% in the October 31 meeting, with minutes revealing internal divisions on hike timing as core CPI cooled to 2.3% in September. Competitive dynamics hinge on Q4 flash GDP in January 2026 and BOJ's December outlook report, where capex momentum could tip toward higher bins or holiday spending weakness toward lower ones.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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