Polymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, closely tracking the Japan Center for Economic Research's April 7 median forecaster estimate of 1.48%. This consensus stems from March 9's upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP at 1.3% saar, fueled by robust capital expenditures that signal carryover momentum into Q1, bolstered by improving business sentiment in the March Tankan survey and January-February activity data affirming moderate expansion. A weakening yen supports net exports, though March manufacturing PMI softening to 51.6 has lifted the 0.9–1.1% outcome to 24.9%. Key catalysts include the Bank of Japan’s April 27–28 meeting and mid-May Q1 flash GDP release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.2％以上 52.7%
0.3〜0.5％ 37.1%
0.9～1.1％ 25.8%
0.6〜0.8% 15%
新規
新規
2026/05/19
-0.4％以下
4%
-0.3～-0.1％
15%
0.0～0.2％
23%
0.3〜0.5％
24%
0.6〜0.8%
23%
0.9～1.1％
26%
1.2％以上
53%
1.2％以上 52.7%
0.3〜0.5％ 37.1%
0.9～1.1％ 25.8%
0.6〜0.8% 15%
新規
新規
2026/05/19
-0.4％以下
$167 Vol.
4%
-0.3～-0.1％
$60 Vol.
15%
0.0～0.2％
$109 Vol.
23%
0.3〜0.5％
$79 Vol.
24%
0.6〜0.8%
$102 Vol.
23%
0.9～1.1％
$106 Vol.
26%
1.2％以上
$593 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, closely tracking the Japan Center for Economic Research's April 7 median forecaster estimate of 1.48%. This consensus stems from March 9's upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP at 1.3% saar, fueled by robust capital expenditures that signal carryover momentum into Q1, bolstered by improving business sentiment in the March Tankan survey and January-February activity data affirming moderate expansion. A weakening yen supports net exports, though March manufacturing PMI softening to 51.6 has lifted the 0.9–1.1% outcome to 24.9%. Key catalysts include the Bank of Japan’s April 27–28 meeting and mid-May Q1 flash GDP release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
マーケット開始日： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
音量
$1,215終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, closely tracking the Japan Center for Economic Research's April 7 median forecaster estimate of 1.48%. This consensus stems from March 9's upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP at 1.3% saar, fueled by robust capital expenditures that signal carryover momentum into Q1, bolstered by improving business sentiment in the March Tankan survey and January-February activity data affirming moderate expansion. A weakening yen supports net exports, though March manufacturing PMI softening to 51.6 has lifted the 0.9–1.1% outcome to 24.9%. Key catalysts include the Bank of Japan’s April 27–28 meeting and mid-May Q1 flash GDP release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
音量
$1,215終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, closely tracking the Japan Center for Economic Research's April 7 median forecaster estimate of 1.48%. This consensus stems from March 9's upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP at 1.3% saar, fueled by robust capital expenditures that signal carryover momentum into Q1, bolstered by improving business sentiment in the March Tankan survey and January-February activity data affirming moderate expansion. A weakening yen supports net exports, though March manufacturing PMI softening to 51.6 has lifted the 0.9–1.1% outcome to 24.9%. Key catalysts include the Bank of Japan’s April 27–28 meeting and mid-May Q1 flash GDP release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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