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エコノミー·英国

2026年第1四半期の英国のGDP成長率は？

Market icon
エコノミー·英国

2026年第1四半期の英国のGDP成長率は？

May 14

May 14

0.0～0.3% 40%

0.3～0.6％ 31.6%

0.6～0.9％ 23.9%

マイナス 7%

Polymarket
NEW

0.0～0.3% 40%

0.3～0.6％ 31.6%

0.6～0.9％ 23.9%

マイナス 7%

Polymarket
NEW

マイナス

$0 Vol.

7%

0.0～0.3%

$8,738 Vol.

47%

0.3～0.6％

$550 Vol.

32%

0.6～0.9％

$0 Vol.

24%

0.9〜1.2%

$0 Vol.

15%

1.2〜1.5％

$0 Vol.

1%

1.5〜1.8%

$0 Vol.

1%

1.8%以上

$690 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability on UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% for Q1 2026, with another 31% on 0.3-0.6%, reflecting January 2026 monthly output flat at 0.0% per Office for National Statistics data released March 13—extending a subdued trend from Q4 2025's 0.1% quarter-on-quarter rise and three-month growth to January of just 0.2%. This positioning stems from softening labor market signals, with unemployment at 5.2% for November 2025-January 2026, persistent 3.0% CPI inflation in January, and Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid Iran conflict-driven energy cost pressures. Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast downgrades 2026 annual growth to 1.1%, implying quarterly averages below 0.3%; February monthly GDP and April Q1 flash estimate loom as key catalysts.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability on UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% for Q1 2026, with another 31% on 0.3-0.6%, reflecting January 2026 monthly output flat at 0.0% per Office for National Statistics data released March 13—extending a subdued trend from Q4 2025's 0.1% quarter-on-quarter rise and three-month growth to January of just 0.2%. This positioning stems from softening labor market signals, with unemployment at 5.2% for November 2025-January 2026, persistent 3.0% CPI inflation in January, and Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid Iran conflict-driven energy cost pressures. Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast downgrades 2026 annual growth to 1.1%, implying quarterly averages below 0.3%; February monthly GDP and April Q1 flash estimate loom as key catalysts.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability on UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% for Q1 2026, with another 31% on 0.3-0.6%, reflecting January 2026 monthly output flat at 0.0% per Office for National Statistics data released March 13—extending a subdued trend from Q4 2025's 0.1% quarter-on-quarter rise and three-month growth to January of just 0.2%. This positioning stems from softening labor market signals, with unemployment at 5.2% for November 2025-January 2026, persistent 3.0% CPI inflation in January, and Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid Iran conflict-driven energy cost pressures. Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast downgrades 2026 annual growth to 1.1%, implying quarterly averages below 0.3%; February monthly GDP and April Q1 flash estimate loom as key catalysts.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47% implied probability on UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% for Q1 2026, with another 31% on 0.3-0.6%, reflecting January 2026 monthly output flat at 0.0% per Office for National Statistics data released March 13—extending a subdued trend from Q4 2025's 0.1% quarter-on-quarter rise and three-month growth to January of just 0.2%. This positioning stems from softening labor market signals, with unemployment at 5.2% for November 2025-January 2026, persistent 3.0% CPI inflation in January, and Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid Iran conflict-driven energy cost pressures. Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast downgrades 2026 annual growth to 1.1%, implying quarterly averages below 0.3%; February monthly GDP and April Q1 flash estimate loom as key catalysts.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年第1四半期の英国のGDP成長率は？」はPolymarket上の8個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「0.0～0.3%」で47%、次いで「0.3～0.6％」が32%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、47¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に47%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「2026年第1四半期の英国のGDP成長率は？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Feb 12, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「2026年第1四半期の英国のGDP成長率は？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている8個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年第1四半期の英国のGDP成長率は？」の現在のフロントランナーは「0.0～0.3%」で47%であり、市場がこの結果に47%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「0.3～0.6％」で32%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年第1四半期の英国のGDP成長率は？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。