Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate pause across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting the April 28-29 decision to hold steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid a divided vote—the highest dissent since 1992—and sticky inflation. March 2026 core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.2% year-over-year, with headline PCE at 3.5%, the hottest since mid-2023, fueled by resilient labor markets (jobless claims near 1969 lows) and geopolitical risks elevating energy prices. This hawkish turn has sidelined cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch odds of 95% no-change in June and 90% in July, ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections. A modest 13% chance for a July cut hinges on cooling data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 83%
Pause–Pause–Cut 22.9%
Other 5.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.6%
$48,029 Vol.
$48,029 Vol.
2026/07/29
Pause–Pause–Pause
83%
Pause–Pause–Cut
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 83%
Pause–Pause–Cut 22.9%
Other 5.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.6%
$48,029 Vol.
$48,029 Vol.
2026/07/29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,119 Vol.
83%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,532 Vol.
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,505 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,323 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,565 Vol.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate pause across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting the April 28-29 decision to hold steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid a divided vote—the highest dissent since 1992—and sticky inflation. March 2026 core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.2% year-over-year, with headline PCE at 3.5%, the hottest since mid-2023, fueled by resilient labor markets (jobless claims near 1969 lows) and geopolitical risks elevating energy prices. This hawkish turn has sidelined cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch odds of 95% no-change in June and 90% in July, ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections. A modest 13% chance for a July cut hinges on cooling data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
音量
$48,029終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate pause across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting the April 28-29 decision to hold steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid a divided vote—the highest dissent since 1992—and sticky inflation. March 2026 core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.2% year-over-year, with headline PCE at 3.5%, the hottest since mid-2023, fueled by resilient labor markets (jobless claims near 1969 lows) and geopolitical risks elevating energy prices. This hawkish turn has sidelined cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch odds of 95% no-change in June and 90% in July, ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections. A modest 13% chance for a July cut hinges on cooling data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$48,029終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate pause across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting the April 28-29 decision to hold steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid a divided vote—the highest dissent since 1992—and sticky inflation. March 2026 core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.2% year-over-year, with headline PCE at 3.5%, the hottest since mid-2023, fueled by resilient labor markets (jobless claims near 1969 lows) and geopolitical risks elevating energy prices. This hawkish turn has sidelined cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch odds of 95% no-change in June and 90% in July, ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections. A modest 13% chance for a July cut hinges on cooling data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問