Recent U.S. inflation data and geopolitical tensions have solidified trader expectations for a prolonged pause in Federal Reserve monetary policy through the April-to-July window. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy costs amid Middle East developments, prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote with notable dissent. Market-implied odds now reflect a strong consensus that incoming data will keep the central bank on hold, with traders assigning only modest probability to any near-term easing. This positioning aligns with revised forecasts showing zero cuts through most of 2026. A meaningful moderation in headline inflation or a sharp deterioration in labor-market indicators could still introduce volatility ahead of the June and July meetings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.9%
Other 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.5%
$49,044 Vol.
$49,044 Vol.
2026/07/29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
6%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.9%
Other 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.5%
$49,044 Vol.
$49,044 Vol.
2026/07/29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,608 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,665 Vol.
6%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,622 Vol.
2%
Other
$1,595 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation data and geopolitical tensions have solidified trader expectations for a prolonged pause in Federal Reserve monetary policy through the April-to-July window. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy costs amid Middle East developments, prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote with notable dissent. Market-implied odds now reflect a strong consensus that incoming data will keep the central bank on hold, with traders assigning only modest probability to any near-term easing. This positioning aligns with revised forecasts showing zero cuts through most of 2026. A meaningful moderation in headline inflation or a sharp deterioration in labor-market indicators could still introduce volatility ahead of the June and July meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
音量
$49,044終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation data and geopolitical tensions have solidified trader expectations for a prolonged pause in Federal Reserve monetary policy through the April-to-July window. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy costs amid Middle East developments, prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote with notable dissent. Market-implied odds now reflect a strong consensus that incoming data will keep the central bank on hold, with traders assigning only modest probability to any near-term easing. This positioning aligns with revised forecasts showing zero cuts through most of 2026. A meaningful moderation in headline inflation or a sharp deterioration in labor-market indicators could still introduce volatility ahead of the June and July meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$49,044終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data and geopolitical tensions have solidified trader expectations for a prolonged pause in Federal Reserve monetary policy through the April-to-July window. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy costs amid Middle East developments, prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote with notable dissent. Market-implied odds now reflect a strong consensus that incoming data will keep the central bank on hold, with traders assigning only modest probability to any near-term easing. This positioning aligns with revised forecasts showing zero cuts through most of 2026. A meaningful moderation in headline inflation or a sharp deterioration in labor-market indicators could still introduce volatility ahead of the June and July meetings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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