Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting robust U.S. economic data that negates crisis-level distress signaling such unscheduled action. November's nonfarm payrolls surged 227,000—beating estimates—with unemployment steady at 4.2% and wage growth moderating, while CPI inflation eased to 2.7% year-over-year, aligning closer to the Fed's 2% target. The FOMC's measured 100 basis-point cuts since September underscore a data-dependent normalization path without panic, as Chair Powell emphasized in recent testimony amid resilient consumer spending and corporate earnings. Absent acute shocks like 2008 or 2020 precedents, traders eye the December 18 FOMC for another 25-basis-point trim as the baseline, with recession odds under 30% per futures markets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$64,180 Vol.
$64,180 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$64,180 Vol.
$64,180 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
音量
$64,180終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
音量
$64,180終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting robust U.S. economic data that negates crisis-level distress signaling such unscheduled action. November's nonfarm payrolls surged 227,000—beating estimates—with unemployment steady at 4.2% and wage growth moderating, while CPI inflation eased to 2.7% year-over-year, aligning closer to the Fed's 2% target. The FOMC's measured 100 basis-point cuts since September underscore a data-dependent normalization path without panic, as Chair Powell emphasized in recent testimony amid resilient consumer spending and corporate earnings. Absent acute shocks like 2008 or 2020 precedents, traders eye the December 18 FOMC for another 25-basis-point trim as the baseline, with recession odds under 30% per futures markets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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