Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, combined with a resilient labor market near 4.3% unemployment, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through the April FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that the central bank will maintain this pause stance across the March, April, and June decisions, consistent with the latest dot plot projections showing limited easing later in the year. Elevated geopolitical risks from Middle East developments and recent hawkish dissents further support the strong positioning for no near-term cuts. Scenarios that could challenge this include a sharp May CPI decline or weakening employment data ahead of the June 16-17 meeting with updated projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.4%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 2.3%
その他 <1%
$1,230,829 Vol.
$1,230,829 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
97%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
2%
その他
1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.4%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 2.3%
その他 <1%
$1,230,829 Vol.
$1,230,829 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$132,933 Vol.
97%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$80,565 Vol.
2%
その他
$271,990 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, highlighted by April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, combined with a resilient labor market near 4.3% unemployment, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through the April FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that the central bank will maintain this pause stance across the March, April, and June decisions, consistent with the latest dot plot projections showing limited easing later in the year. Elevated geopolitical risks from Middle East developments and recent hawkish dissents further support the strong positioning for no near-term cuts. Scenarios that could challenge this include a sharp May CPI decline or weakening employment data ahead of the June 16-17 meeting with updated projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$1,230,829終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, highlighted by April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, combined with a resilient labor market near 4.3% unemployment, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through the April FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that the central bank will maintain this pause stance across the March, April, and June decisions, consistent with the latest dot plot projections showing limited easing later in the year. Elevated geopolitical risks from Middle East developments and recent hawkish dissents further support the strong positioning for no near-term cuts. Scenarios that could challenge this include a sharp May CPI decline or weakening employment data ahead of the June 16-17 meeting with updated projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$1,230,829終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, combined with a resilient labor market near 4.3% unemployment, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through the April FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that the central bank will maintain this pause stance across the March, April, and June decisions, consistent with the latest dot plot projections showing limited easing later in the year. Elevated geopolitical risks from Middle East developments and recent hawkish dissents further support the strong positioning for no near-term cuts. Scenarios that could challenge this include a sharp May CPI decline or weakening employment data ahead of the June 16-17 meeting with updated projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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