Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause-Pause-Pause—reflecting caution amid resurgent inflation pressures. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, but the subsequent March CPI release on April 10 showed annual inflation accelerating to 3.3%—the highest since May 2024—fueled by a 10.9% energy surge tied to Iran conflict escalations. This hot data has diminished near-term cut expectations, with only 10% odds for a June easing (Pause-Pause-Cut), while brokerages eye potential mid-year relief post-April 28-29 meeting, pending April CPI on May 12. Markets price persistent inflation risks over labor softening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 88%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 10%
その他 1.2%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ <1%
$798,169 Vol.
$798,169 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
88%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
10%
その他
1%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
1%
停止–利下げ–停止
<1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 88%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 10%
その他 1.2%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ <1%
$798,169 Vol.
$798,169 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$29,921 Vol.
88%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$15,046 Vol.
10%
その他
$212,661 Vol.
1%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
$408,208 Vol.
1%
停止–利下げ–停止
$132,334 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause-Pause-Pause—reflecting caution amid resurgent inflation pressures. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, but the subsequent March CPI release on April 10 showed annual inflation accelerating to 3.3%—the highest since May 2024—fueled by a 10.9% energy surge tied to Iran conflict escalations. This hot data has diminished near-term cut expectations, with only 10% odds for a June easing (Pause-Pause-Cut), while brokerages eye potential mid-year relief post-April 28-29 meeting, pending April CPI on May 12. Markets price persistent inflation risks over labor softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$798,169終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause-Pause-Pause—reflecting caution amid resurgent inflation pressures. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, but the subsequent March CPI release on April 10 showed annual inflation accelerating to 3.3%—the highest since May 2024—fueled by a 10.9% energy surge tied to Iran conflict escalations. This hot data has diminished near-term cut expectations, with only 10% odds for a June easing (Pause-Pause-Cut), while brokerages eye potential mid-year relief post-April 28-29 meeting, pending April CPI on May 12. Markets price persistent inflation risks over labor softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$798,169終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause-Pause-Pause—reflecting caution amid resurgent inflation pressures. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, but the subsequent March CPI release on April 10 showed annual inflation accelerating to 3.3%—the highest since May 2024—fueled by a 10.9% energy surge tied to Iran conflict escalations. This hot data has diminished near-term cut expectations, with only 10% odds for a June easing (Pause-Pause-Cut), while brokerages eye potential mid-year relief post-April 28-29 meeting, pending April CPI on May 12. Markets price persistent inflation risks over labor softening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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