Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Federal Reserve decisions for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, price a 91.5% implied probability of pauses across all three—reflecting March's confirmed hold at the 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range amid reaccelerating inflation. The March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year (up from 2.4%), fueled by war-related oil shocks, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience. Hawkish March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted elevated inflation risks and openness to hikes, anchoring trader consensus for steady policy. Upcoming April 28–29 meeting precedes May CPI; softer data like cooling energy prices or weakening jobs could challenge the pause path, though geopolitical tensions sustain upside inflation pressures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 92%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 7%
その他 1.5%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ <1%
$797,297 Vol.
$797,297 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
92%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
7%
その他
2%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
1%
停止–利下げ–停止
<1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 92%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 7%
その他 1.5%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ <1%
$797,297 Vol.
$797,297 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$29,260 Vol.
92%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$14,834 Vol.
7%
その他
$212,661 Vol.
2%
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
$408,208 Vol.
1%
停止–利下げ–停止
$132,334 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders, wagering real capital on Federal Reserve decisions for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, price a 91.5% implied probability of pauses across all three—reflecting March's confirmed hold at the 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range amid reaccelerating inflation. The March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year (up from 2.4%), fueled by war-related oil shocks, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience. Hawkish March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted elevated inflation risks and openness to hikes, anchoring trader consensus for steady policy. Upcoming April 28–29 meeting precedes May CPI; softer data like cooling energy prices or weakening jobs could challenge the pause path, though geopolitical tensions sustain upside inflation pressures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$797,297終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders, wagering real capital on Federal Reserve decisions for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, price a 91.5% implied probability of pauses across all three—reflecting March's confirmed hold at the 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range amid reaccelerating inflation. The March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year (up from 2.4%), fueled by war-related oil shocks, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience. Hawkish March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted elevated inflation risks and openness to hikes, anchoring trader consensus for steady policy. Upcoming April 28–29 meeting precedes May CPI; softer data like cooling energy prices or weakening jobs could challenge the pause path, though geopolitical tensions sustain upside inflation pressures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$797,297終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Federal Reserve decisions for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, price a 91.5% implied probability of pauses across all three—reflecting March's confirmed hold at the 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range amid reaccelerating inflation. The March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year (up from 2.4%), fueled by war-related oil shocks, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience. Hawkish March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted elevated inflation risks and openness to hikes, anchoring trader consensus for steady policy. Upcoming April 28–29 meeting precedes May CPI; softer data like cooling energy prices or weakening jobs could challenge the pause path, though geopolitical tensions sustain upside inflation pressures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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