Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to pause the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across its March, April, and June 2026 meetings, following actual holds in March (11-1 vote) and April (with four dissents amid elevated policy debate). This positioning stems from sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—driven by war-related oil shocks—paired with resilient March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000, offsetting prior softening and aligning with the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate projection near current levels. Upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) and nonfarm payrolls data loom as key catalysts; significantly cooler inflation or labor weakness could challenge the pause consensus by boosting cut odds, while hotter prints risk hike discussions in "Other" scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 96%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 3.6%
その他 1.4%
$1,037,867 Vol.
$1,037,867 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
96%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
4%
その他
1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 96%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 3.6%
その他 1.4%
$1,037,867 Vol.
$1,037,867 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$46,703 Vol.
96%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$22,853 Vol.
4%
その他
$222,969 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to pause the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across its March, April, and June 2026 meetings, following actual holds in March (11-1 vote) and April (with four dissents amid elevated policy debate). This positioning stems from sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—driven by war-related oil shocks—paired with resilient March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000, offsetting prior softening and aligning with the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate projection near current levels. Upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) and nonfarm payrolls data loom as key catalysts; significantly cooler inflation or labor weakness could challenge the pause consensus by boosting cut odds, while hotter prints risk hike discussions in "Other" scenarios.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$1,037,867終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to pause the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across its March, April, and June 2026 meetings, following actual holds in March (11-1 vote) and April (with four dissents amid elevated policy debate). This positioning stems from sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—driven by war-related oil shocks—paired with resilient March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000, offsetting prior softening and aligning with the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate projection near current levels. Upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) and nonfarm payrolls data loom as key catalysts; significantly cooler inflation or labor weakness could challenge the pause consensus by boosting cut odds, while hotter prints risk hike discussions in "Other" scenarios.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$1,037,867終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to pause the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across its March, April, and June 2026 meetings, following actual holds in March (11-1 vote) and April (with four dissents amid elevated policy debate). This positioning stems from sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—driven by war-related oil shocks—paired with resilient March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000, offsetting prior softening and aligning with the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate projection near current levels. Upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) and nonfarm payrolls data loom as key catalysts; significantly cooler inflation or labor weakness could challenge the pause consensus by boosting cut odds, while hotter prints risk hike discussions in "Other" scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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