Recent inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a stable labor market and elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The March dot plot reinforced this path with broad consensus for rates in the 3.25%-3.75% zone through year-end, while futures markets assign negligible odds to near-term easing or tightening. Key upcoming releases—the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI—could introduce volatility if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts, though current readings support the market-implied 97.5% probability of three consecutive pauses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.4%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 2.3%
その他 <1%
$1,230,841 Vol.
$1,230,841 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
97%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
2%
その他
1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.4%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 2.3%
その他 <1%
$1,230,841 Vol.
$1,230,841 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$132,940 Vol.
97%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$80,567 Vol.
2%
その他
$271,992 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a stable labor market and elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The March dot plot reinforced this path with broad consensus for rates in the 3.25%-3.75% zone through year-end, while futures markets assign negligible odds to near-term easing or tightening. Key upcoming releases—the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI—could introduce volatility if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts, though current readings support the market-implied 97.5% probability of three consecutive pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$1,230,841終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a stable labor market and elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The March dot plot reinforced this path with broad consensus for rates in the 3.25%-3.75% zone through year-end, while futures markets assign negligible odds to near-term easing or tightening. Key upcoming releases—the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI—could introduce volatility if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts, though current readings support the market-implied 97.5% probability of three consecutive pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$1,230,841終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a stable labor market and elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The March dot plot reinforced this path with broad consensus for rates in the 3.25%-3.75% zone through year-end, while futures markets assign negligible odds to near-term easing or tightening. Key upcoming releases—the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI—could introduce volatility if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts, though current readings support the market-implied 97.5% probability of three consecutive pauses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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