Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target at 3.50%-3.75% across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since May 2024—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, prompting both recent FOMC statements to hold steady amid dissents favoring even tighter policy. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores caution against premature easing. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI data due May 12 or weakening employment prints, potentially reviving cut odds ahead of June.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 96%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 3.4%
その他 1.4%
$1,037,711 Vol.
$1,037,711 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
96%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
3%
その他
1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 96%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 3.4%
その他 1.4%
$1,037,711 Vol.
$1,037,711 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$46,655 Vol.
96%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$22,766 Vol.
3%
その他
$222,949 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target at 3.50%-3.75% across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since May 2024—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, prompting both recent FOMC statements to hold steady amid dissents favoring even tighter policy. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores caution against premature easing. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI data due May 12 or weakening employment prints, potentially reviving cut odds ahead of June.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$1,037,711終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target at 3.50%-3.75% across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since May 2024—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, prompting both recent FOMC statements to hold steady amid dissents favoring even tighter policy. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores caution against premature easing. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI data due May 12 or weakening employment prints, potentially reviving cut odds ahead of June.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$1,037,711終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target at 3.50%-3.75% across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since May 2024—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, prompting both recent FOMC statements to hold steady amid dissents favoring even tighter policy. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores caution against premature easing. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI data due May 12 or weakening employment prints, potentially reviving cut odds ahead of June.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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