Recent inflation data through early 2026 and a stable labor market have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged federal funds rates at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, producing a near-100% implied probability for the pause-pause-pause outcome. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with core PCE and employment figures showing insufficient movement to justify shifts, consistent with the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. This consensus draws on historical base rates where steady policy prevails absent clear disinflation or recession signals. The June meeting remains the final near-term catalyst, though an abrupt deterioration in June employment data or a surprise CPI spike could still alter positioning before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 100.0%
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き <1%
利下げ・利下げ・据え置き <1%
停止–利下げ–停止 <1%
$2,333,980 Vol.
$2,333,980 Vol.
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き
いいえ
利下げ・利下げ・据え置き
いいえ
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
はい
停止–利下げ–停止
いいえ
その他
いいえ
利下げ–据え置き–利下げ
いいえ
利下げ・利下げ・利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
いいえ
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 100.0%
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き <1%
利下げ・利下げ・据え置き <1%
停止–利下げ–停止 <1%
$2,333,980 Vol.
$2,333,980 Vol.
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き
いいえ
利下げ・利下げ・据え置き
いいえ
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
はい
停止–利下げ–停止
いいえ
その他
いいえ
利下げ–据え置き–利下げ
いいえ
利下げ・利下げ・利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Recent inflation data through early 2026 and a stable labor market have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged federal funds rates at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, producing a near-100% implied probability for the pause-pause-pause outcome. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with core PCE and employment figures showing insufficient movement to justify shifts, consistent with the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. This consensus draws on historical base rates where steady policy prevails absent clear disinflation or recession signals. The June meeting remains the final near-term catalyst, though an abrupt deterioration in June employment data or a surprise CPI spike could still alter positioning before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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