Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日利下げ–据え置き–据え置き 100.0%
利下げ–利下げ–据え置き <1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き <1%
一時停止–利下げ–一時停止 <1%
$425,543 Vol.
$425,543 Vol.
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き
はい
利下げ–利下げ–据え置き
いいえ
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
いいえ
一時停止–利下げ–一時停止
いいえ
その他
いいえ
利下げ→据え置き→利下げ
いいえ
利下げ・利下げ・利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
いいえ
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き 100.0%
利下げ–利下げ–据え置き <1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き <1%
一時停止–利下げ–一時停止 <1%
$425,543 Vol.
$425,543 Vol.
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き
はい
利下げ–利下げ–据え置き
いいえ
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
いいえ
一時停止–利下げ–一時停止
いいえ
その他
いいえ
利下げ→据え置き→利下げ
いいえ
利下げ・利下げ・利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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