Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty over President-elect Trump's yet-to-be-announced Federal Reserve chair nominee, with implied probabilities split tightly between 60+ yes votes (34.5%) and a bare 51-vote simple majority (30.5%), anchored by the GOP's new 53-seat Senate majority post-2024 elections. No official nominee has emerged despite rumors around Kevin Warsh and others, keeping odds competitive amid questions over Senate Banking Committee dynamics and potential moderate Republican holdouts on a controversial pick. Recent cabinet announcements like Scott Bessent for Treasury signal transition momentum, but confirmation hearings likely await January, when a unity pick could push toward supermajority support or divisions cap votes near 51-54. Absenteeism or withdrawals remain low-probability risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日60人以上 38%
54 11.1%
53 9%
55 5.9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
49人以下
6%
50
4%
51
31%
52
6%
53
9%
54
16%
55
6%
56
4%
57
4%
58
4%
59
3%
60人以上
38%
12月31日までに投票なし／撤回
5%
60人以上 38%
54 11.1%
53 9%
55 5.9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
49人以下
$0 Vol.
6%
50
$475 Vol.
4%
51
$0 Vol.
31%
52
$0 Vol.
6%
53
$0 Vol.
9%
54
$0 Vol.
16%
55
$0 Vol.
6%
56
$0 Vol.
4%
57
$0 Vol.
4%
58
$0 Vol.
4%
59
$0 Vol.
3%
60人以上
$0 Vol.
38%
12月31日までに投票なし／撤回
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty over President-elect Trump's yet-to-be-announced Federal Reserve chair nominee, with implied probabilities split tightly between 60+ yes votes (34.5%) and a bare 51-vote simple majority (30.5%), anchored by the GOP's new 53-seat Senate majority post-2024 elections. No official nominee has emerged despite rumors around Kevin Warsh and others, keeping odds competitive amid questions over Senate Banking Committee dynamics and potential moderate Republican holdouts on a controversial pick. Recent cabinet announcements like Scott Bessent for Treasury signal transition momentum, but confirmation hearings likely await January, when a unity pick could push toward supermajority support or divisions cap votes near 51-54. Absenteeism or withdrawals remain low-probability risks.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
音量
$475終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty over President-elect Trump's yet-to-be-announced Federal Reserve chair nominee, with implied probabilities split tightly between 60+ yes votes (34.5%) and a bare 51-vote simple majority (30.5%), anchored by the GOP's new 53-seat Senate majority post-2024 elections. No official nominee has emerged despite rumors around Kevin Warsh and others, keeping odds competitive amid questions over Senate Banking Committee dynamics and potential moderate Republican holdouts on a controversial pick. Recent cabinet announcements like Scott Bessent for Treasury signal transition momentum, but confirmation hearings likely await January, when a unity pick could push toward supermajority support or divisions cap votes near 51-54. Absenteeism or withdrawals remain low-probability risks.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$475終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty over President-elect Trump's yet-to-be-announced Federal Reserve chair nominee, with implied probabilities split tightly between 60+ yes votes (34.5%) and a bare 51-vote simple majority (30.5%), anchored by the GOP's new 53-seat Senate majority post-2024 elections. No official nominee has emerged despite rumors around Kevin Warsh and others, keeping odds competitive amid questions over Senate Banking Committee dynamics and potential moderate Republican holdouts on a controversial pick. Recent cabinet announcements like Scott Bessent for Treasury signal transition momentum, but confirmation hearings likely await January, when a unity pick could push toward supermajority support or divisions cap votes near 51-54. Absenteeism or withdrawals remain low-probability risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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