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政治·フェデラル・レート

2026年末のFRB金利はいくらになりますか？

Market icon
政治·フェデラル・レート

2026年末のFRB金利はいくらになりますか？

3.75％ 34.9%

3.5％ 23%

3.25% 13%

4.0％ 11.5%

Polymarket

$5,904,649 Vol.

3.75％ 34.9%

3.5％ 23%

3.25% 13%

4.0％ 11.5%

Polymarket

$5,904,649 Vol.

1.0％以下

$191,782 Vol.

1%

1.25

$99,195 Vol.

1%

1.5%

$108,308 Vol.

<1%

1.75%

$95,331 Vol.

<1%

2.0%

$94,795 Vol.

1%

2.25％

$59,474 Vol.

1%

2.5%

$84,530 Vol.

1%

2.75％

$23,491 Vol.

6%

3.0％

$430,884 Vol.

4%

3.25%

$37,721 Vol.

13%

3.5％

$56,291 Vol.

23%

3.75％

$490,901 Vol.

35%

4.0％

$1,341,048 Vol.

12%

4.25％

$403,465 Vol.

2%

4.5%以上

$2,387,433 Vol.

3%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Fed funds rate outcomes at year-end 2026, price a 35% implied probability at 3.75% and 23% at 3.5%, reflecting consensus for limited easing from the current 3.5%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation pressures. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady, with the updated dot plot showing a median projection of 3.4%—slightly below market-implied odds—supported by steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, but tempered by rising energy costs from geopolitical tensions and unemployment edging to 4.4%. Officials raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%, signaling caution despite stable jobless claims. Upcoming April 10 CPI data and April 28-29 FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for potential repricing.

Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Fed funds rate outcomes at year-end 2026, price a 35% implied probability at 3.75% and 23% at 3.5%, reflecting consensus for limited easing from the current 3.5%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation pressures. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady, with the updated dot plot showing a median projection of 3.4%—slightly below market-implied odds—supported by steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, but tempered by rising energy costs from geopolitical tensions and unemployment edging to 4.4%. Officials raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%, signaling caution despite stable jobless claims. Upcoming April 10 CPI data and April 28-29 FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for potential repricing.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Fed funds rate outcomes at year-end 2026, price a 35% implied probability at 3.75% and 23% at 3.5%, reflecting consensus for limited easing from the current 3.5%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation pressures. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady, with the updated dot plot showing a median projection of 3.4%—slightly below market-implied odds—supported by steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, but tempered by rising energy costs from geopolitical tensions and unemployment edging to 4.4%. Officials raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%, signaling caution despite stable jobless claims. Upcoming April 10 CPI data and April 28-29 FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for potential repricing.

Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Fed funds rate outcomes at year-end 2026, price a 35% implied probability at 3.75% and 23% at 3.5%, reflecting consensus for limited easing from the current 3.5%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation pressures. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady, with the updated dot plot showing a median projection of 3.4%—slightly below market-implied odds—supported by steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, but tempered by rising energy costs from geopolitical tensions and unemployment edging to 4.4%. Officials raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%, signaling caution despite stable jobless claims. Upcoming April 10 CPI data and April 28-29 FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for potential repricing.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年末のFRB金利はいくらになりますか？」はPolymarket上の15個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「3.75％」で35%、次いで「3.5％」が23%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、35¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に35%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年末のFRB金利はいくらになりますか？」は$5.9 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 12, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年末のFRB金利はいくらになりますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている15個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年末のFRB金利はいくらになりますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「3.75％」で35%であり、市場がこの結果に35%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「3.5％」で23%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年末のFRB金利はいくらになりますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。