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エコノミー·経済政策

4月の連邦準備制度理事会の決定は？

Market icon
エコノミー·経済政策

4月の連邦準備制度理事会の決定は？

Apr 29

Jun 17

Jul 29

Apr 29

Jun 17

Jul 29

変更なし 96.6%

25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.8%

25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.0%

50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%

Polymarket

$36,345,903 Vol.

変更なし 96.6%

25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.8%

25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.0%

50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%

Polymarket

$36,345,903 Vol.

50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ

$12,467,881 Vol.

<1%

25ベーシスポイント引き下げ

$7,588,672 Vol.

1%

変更なし

$7,447,149 Vol.

97%

25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ

$8,846,545 Vol.

2%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 96.6% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Updated dot plot forecasts elevated 2026 core PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.5%, citing persistent pressures and Iran war-related oil risks, while unemployment held at 4.4% despite February's -92,000 payroll decline signaling labor softening without recession signals. CME FedWatch concurs near 95%, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment on one annual cut. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected March CPI or nonfarm payrolls precipitating a cut, though barriers remain high given policy patience.

Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 96.6% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Updated dot plot forecasts elevated 2026 core PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.5%, citing persistent pressures and Iran war-related oil risks, while unemployment held at 4.4% despite February's -92,000 payroll decline signaling labor softening without recession signals. CME FedWatch concurs near 95%, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment on one annual cut. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected March CPI or nonfarm payrolls precipitating a cut, though barriers remain high given policy patience.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 96.6% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Updated dot plot forecasts elevated 2026 core PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.5%, citing persistent pressures and Iran war-related oil risks, while unemployment held at 4.4% despite February's -92,000 payroll decline signaling labor softening without recession signals. CME FedWatch concurs near 95%, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment on one annual cut. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected March CPI or nonfarm payrolls precipitating a cut, though barriers remain high given policy patience.

Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 96.6% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Updated dot plot forecasts elevated 2026 core PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.5%, citing persistent pressures and Iran war-related oil risks, while unemployment held at 4.4% despite February's -92,000 payroll decline signaling labor softening without recession signals. CME FedWatch concurs near 95%, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment on one annual cut. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected March CPI or nonfarm payrolls precipitating a cut, though barriers remain high given policy patience.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「4月の連邦準備制度理事会の決定は？」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「変更なし」で97%、次いで「25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ」が2%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、97¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に97%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「4月の連邦準備制度理事会の決定は？」は$36.3 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 13, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「4月の連邦準備制度理事会の決定は？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「4月の連邦準備制度理事会の決定は？」の現在のフロントランナーは「変更なし」で97%であり、市場がこの結果に97%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ」で2%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「4月の連邦準備制度理事会の決定は？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。