Strong US job growth of 172,000 in May, alongside steady 4.3% unemployment and wage gains trailing elevated inflation, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave its 3.50-3.75% target range unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. Persistent price pressures tied to Middle East energy costs and official comments favoring policy firming if inflation remains above target have kept the probability of a 25 basis point hike as the clearest alternative. Recent FOMC minutes and market pricing reflect a cautious approach prioritizing data on labor resilience and inflation trends over near-term easing, consistent with the committee's meeting-by-meeting stance and limited room for cuts given current conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
$178,375 Vol.
$178,375 Vol.
2026/09/16
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
$178,375 Vol.
$178,375 Vol.
2026/09/16
50+ bps decrease
$36,198 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$34,124 Vol.
3%
No change
$37,230 Vol.
76%
25 bps increase
$37,084 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$33,738 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong US job growth of 172,000 in May, alongside steady 4.3% unemployment and wage gains trailing elevated inflation, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave its 3.50-3.75% target range unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. Persistent price pressures tied to Middle East energy costs and official comments favoring policy firming if inflation remains above target have kept the probability of a 25 basis point hike as the clearest alternative. Recent FOMC minutes and market pricing reflect a cautious approach prioritizing data on labor resilience and inflation trends over near-term easing, consistent with the committee's meeting-by-meeting stance and limited room for cuts given current conditions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
音量
$178,375終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong US job growth of 172,000 in May, alongside steady 4.3% unemployment and wage gains trailing elevated inflation, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave its 3.50-3.75% target range unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. Persistent price pressures tied to Middle East energy costs and official comments favoring policy firming if inflation remains above target have kept the probability of a 25 basis point hike as the clearest alternative. Recent FOMC minutes and market pricing reflect a cautious approach prioritizing data on labor resilience and inflation trends over near-term easing, consistent with the committee's meeting-by-meeting stance and limited room for cuts given current conditions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$178,375終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong US job growth of 172,000 in May, alongside steady 4.3% unemployment and wage gains trailing elevated inflation, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave its 3.50-3.75% target range unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. Persistent price pressures tied to Middle East energy costs and official comments favoring policy firming if inflation remains above target have kept the probability of a 25 basis point hike as the clearest alternative. Recent FOMC minutes and market pricing reflect a cautious approach prioritizing data on labor resilience and inflation trends over near-term easing, consistent with the committee's meeting-by-meeting stance and limited room for cuts given current conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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