The June 17 FOMC decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, yet the updated dot plot lifted the year-end 2026 median projection to 3.8% from 3.4%, with nine participants now expecting at least one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent core inflation—revised sharply higher to a 3.6% PCE forecast—and a resilient labor market, including strong May payrolls, have shifted trader consensus away from cuts toward possible tightening by October or December. Geopolitical oil-price pressures and the removal of easing bias in communications reinforce this path. CME FedWatch currently prices roughly a 66% chance of at least one hike by year-end, with the next data releases and the July meeting serving as key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$198,325 Vol.
2026/12/09
7月会合
40%
9月会合
33%
10月会合
38%
$198,325 Vol.
7月会合
$2,703 Vol.
40%
9月会合
$11,497 Vol.
33%
10月会合
$7,032 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 17 FOMC decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, yet the updated dot plot lifted the year-end 2026 median projection to 3.8% from 3.4%, with nine participants now expecting at least one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent core inflation—revised sharply higher to a 3.6% PCE forecast—and a resilient labor market, including strong May payrolls, have shifted trader consensus away from cuts toward possible tightening by October or December. Geopolitical oil-price pressures and the removal of easing bias in communications reinforce this path. CME FedWatch currently prices roughly a 66% chance of at least one hike by year-end, with the next data releases and the July meeting serving as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$198,325終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 17 FOMC decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, yet the updated dot plot lifted the year-end 2026 median projection to 3.8% from 3.4%, with nine participants now expecting at least one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent core inflation—revised sharply higher to a 3.6% PCE forecast—and a resilient labor market, including strong May payrolls, have shifted trader consensus away from cuts toward possible tightening by October or December. Geopolitical oil-price pressures and the removal of easing bias in communications reinforce this path. CME FedWatch currently prices roughly a 66% chance of at least one hike by year-end, with the next data releases and the July meeting serving as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$198,325終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The June 17 FOMC decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, yet the updated dot plot lifted the year-end 2026 median projection to 3.8% from 3.4%, with nine participants now expecting at least one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent core inflation—revised sharply higher to a 3.6% PCE forecast—and a resilient labor market, including strong May payrolls, have shifted trader consensus away from cuts toward possible tightening by October or December. Geopolitical oil-price pressures and the removal of easing bias in communications reinforce this path. CME FedWatch currently prices roughly a 66% chance of at least one hike by year-end, with the next data releases and the July meeting serving as key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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