Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly one-third, with futures pricing a modest upward shift in the policy path. The Fed held its target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the April 29 meeting amid elevated inflation, resilient consumer spending, and Middle East-driven energy price pressures that have heightened uncertainty. Labor market data show slower hiring, yet officials remain data-dependent ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the May 28 PCE release. Traders now assign elevated probabilities to a potential 25-basis-point increase by year-end or early 2027 if inflation persists above target, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$153,596 Vol.
2026/12/09
6月会合
1%
7月会合
5%
9月会合
27%
10月会合
27%
$153,596 Vol.
6月会合
$15,633 Vol.
1%
7月会合
$1,710 Vol.
5%
9月会合
$2,400 Vol.
27%
10月会合
$2,545 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly one-third, with futures pricing a modest upward shift in the policy path. The Fed held its target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the April 29 meeting amid elevated inflation, resilient consumer spending, and Middle East-driven energy price pressures that have heightened uncertainty. Labor market data show slower hiring, yet officials remain data-dependent ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the May 28 PCE release. Traders now assign elevated probabilities to a potential 25-basis-point increase by year-end or early 2027 if inflation persists above target, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$153,596終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly one-third, with futures pricing a modest upward shift in the policy path. The Fed held its target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the April 29 meeting amid elevated inflation, resilient consumer spending, and Middle East-driven energy price pressures that have heightened uncertainty. Labor market data show slower hiring, yet officials remain data-dependent ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the May 28 PCE release. Traders now assign elevated probabilities to a potential 25-basis-point increase by year-end or early 2027 if inflation persists above target, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$153,596終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly one-third, with futures pricing a modest upward shift in the policy path. The Fed held its target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the April 29 meeting amid elevated inflation, resilient consumer spending, and Middle East-driven energy price pressures that have heightened uncertainty. Labor market data show slower hiring, yet officials remain data-dependent ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the May 28 PCE release. Traders now assign elevated probabilities to a potential 25-basis-point increase by year-end or early 2027 if inflation persists above target, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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