The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$3,931,762 Vol.
2026/12/08
4月会合
いいえ
6月会合
いいえ
7月会合
いいえ
9月会合
はい
10月会合
はい
$3,931,762 Vol.
4月会合
$131,308 Vol.
いいえ
6月会合
$45,785 Vol.
いいえ
7月会合
$782,907 Vol.
いいえ
9月会合
$1,909,469 Vol.
はい
10月会合
$1,062,293 Vol.
はい
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$3,931,762終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$3,931,762終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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