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icon for FRBの利上げは... ?

FRBの利上げは... ?

icon for FRBの利上げは... ?

FRBの利上げは... ?

$144,567 Vol.

2026/12/09
Polymarket

$144,567 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for 6月会合

6月会合

$12,062 Vol.

1%

icon for 7月会合

7月会合

$755 Vol.

6%

icon for 9月会合

9月会合

$49 Vol.

16%

icon for 10月会合

10月会合

$392 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting—the third consecutive pause—amid reaccelerating inflation, with March CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, and unemployment stable at 4.3%. Policymakers highlighted balanced risks but registered unusual dissent, reflecting debates over persistent price pressures from energy costs and geopolitical tensions. Market-implied paths via CME FedWatch Tool show trader consensus favoring no near-term hikes, though futures price modest risks later in 2026 if inflation endures. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, alongside nonfarm payrolls data shaping policy expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$144,567
終了日
2026/10/29
マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting—the third consecutive pause—amid reaccelerating inflation, with March CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, and unemployment stable at 4.3%. Policymakers highlighted balanced risks but registered unusual dissent, reflecting debates over persistent price pressures from energy costs and geopolitical tensions. Market-implied paths via CME FedWatch Tool show trader consensus favoring no near-term hikes, though futures price modest risks later in 2026 if inflation endures. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, alongside nonfarm payrolls data shaping policy expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$144,567
終了日
2026/10/29
マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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よくある質問

「FRBの利上げは... ?」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「9月会合」で16%、次いで「10月会合」が16%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、16¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に16%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「FRBの利上げは... ?」は$144.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Mar 31, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「FRBの利上げは... ?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「FRBの利上げは... ?」の現在のフロントランナーは「9月会合」で16%であり、市場がこの結果に16%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「10月会合」で16%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「FRBの利上げは... ?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。