Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted some trader expectations toward a possible Federal Reserve rate hike late in 2026, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly even odds of a December move and 60 percent probability by January 2027. Despite this repricing, the 67.5 percent market-implied odds against any hike this year reflect the prevailing view that the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range will hold through most of 2026, given the Fed’s data-dependent stance and uncertainty around incoming leadership. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the June FOMC meeting, where fresh labor-market and inflation figures could further influence the market-implied path for the federal funds rate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,121,170 Vol.
$1,121,170 Vol.
2026/12/09
はい
$1,121,170 Vol.
$1,121,170 Vol.
2026/12/09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted some trader expectations toward a possible Federal Reserve rate hike late in 2026, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly even odds of a December move and 60 percent probability by January 2027. Despite this repricing, the 67.5 percent market-implied odds against any hike this year reflect the prevailing view that the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range will hold through most of 2026, given the Fed’s data-dependent stance and uncertainty around incoming leadership. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the June FOMC meeting, where fresh labor-market and inflation figures could further influence the market-implied path for the federal funds rate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$1,121,170終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted some trader expectations toward a possible Federal Reserve rate hike late in 2026, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly even odds of a December move and 60 percent probability by January 2027. Despite this repricing, the 67.5 percent market-implied odds against any hike this year reflect the prevailing view that the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range will hold through most of 2026, given the Fed’s data-dependent stance and uncertainty around incoming leadership. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the June FOMC meeting, where fresh labor-market and inflation figures could further influence the market-implied path for the federal funds rate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,121,370終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted some trader expectations toward a possible Federal Reserve rate hike late in 2026, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly even odds of a December move and 60 percent probability by January 2027. Despite this repricing, the 67.5 percent market-implied odds against any hike this year reflect the prevailing view that the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range will hold through most of 2026, given the Fed’s data-dependent stance and uncertainty around incoming leadership. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the June FOMC meeting, where fresh labor-market and inflation figures could further influence the market-implied path for the federal funds rate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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