Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus around the December 2024 FOMC dot plot's median projection of the fed funds rate falling to 3.1% by year-end amid sustained disinflation. November CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year—below forecasts—while core PCE hit 2.8%, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory and easing pressure for tightening. Resilient but cooling labor markets, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and softening job growth, support expectations of two 2025 cuts before stabilization. Key swing factors include January inflation data and the January 28-29 FOMC meeting, though upside inflation risks from tariffs remain low-conviction tail scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$642,900 Vol.
$642,900 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
はい
$642,900 Vol.
$642,900 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus around the December 2024 FOMC dot plot's median projection of the fed funds rate falling to 3.1% by year-end amid sustained disinflation. November CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year—below forecasts—while core PCE hit 2.8%, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory and easing pressure for tightening. Resilient but cooling labor markets, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and softening job growth, support expectations of two 2025 cuts before stabilization. Key swing factors include January inflation data and the January 28-29 FOMC meeting, though upside inflation risks from tariffs remain low-conviction tail scenarios.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$642,900終了日
Dec 9, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus around the December 2024 FOMC dot plot's median projection of the fed funds rate falling to 3.1% by year-end amid sustained disinflation. November CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year—below forecasts—while core PCE hit 2.8%, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory and easing pressure for tightening. Resilient but cooling labor markets, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and softening job growth, support expectations of two 2025 cuts before stabilization. Key swing factors include January inflation data and the January 28-29 FOMC meeting, though upside inflation risks from tariffs remain low-conviction tail scenarios.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$642,900終了日
Dec 9, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus around the December 2024 FOMC dot plot's median projection of the fed funds rate falling to 3.1% by year-end amid sustained disinflation. November CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year—below forecasts—while core PCE hit 2.8%, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory and easing pressure for tightening. Resilient but cooling labor markets, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and softening job growth, support expectations of two 2025 cuts before stabilization. Key swing factors include January inflation data and the January 28-29 FOMC meeting, though upside inflation risks from tariffs remain low-conviction tail scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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