Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's December 2024 dot plot projecting fed funds at 3.4% by year-end amid ongoing disinflation. Headline CPI eased to 2.9% year-over-year in December, with core at 3.2%, bolstering expectations for two additional 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and stability thereafter, as labor markets show resilience without overheating—nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs but unemployment ticked to 4.1%. This trader consensus, backed by real capital, contrasts hawkish fiscal stimulus risks from incoming policy but prioritizes data-dependent easing; watch the January 29 FOMC meeting and PCE inflation gauge for potential shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$626,279 Vol.
$626,279 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
はい
$626,279 Vol.
$626,279 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's December 2024 dot plot projecting fed funds at 3.4% by year-end amid ongoing disinflation. Headline CPI eased to 2.9% year-over-year in December, with core at 3.2%, bolstering expectations for two additional 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and stability thereafter, as labor markets show resilience without overheating—nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs but unemployment ticked to 4.1%. This trader consensus, backed by real capital, contrasts hawkish fiscal stimulus risks from incoming policy but prioritizes data-dependent easing; watch the January 29 FOMC meeting and PCE inflation gauge for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$626,279終了日
Dec 9, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's December 2024 dot plot projecting fed funds at 3.4% by year-end amid ongoing disinflation. Headline CPI eased to 2.9% year-over-year in December, with core at 3.2%, bolstering expectations for two additional 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and stability thereafter, as labor markets show resilience without overheating—nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs but unemployment ticked to 4.1%. This trader consensus, backed by real capital, contrasts hawkish fiscal stimulus risks from incoming policy but prioritizes data-dependent easing; watch the January 29 FOMC meeting and PCE inflation gauge for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$626,279終了日
Dec 9, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's December 2024 dot plot projecting fed funds at 3.4% by year-end amid ongoing disinflation. Headline CPI eased to 2.9% year-over-year in December, with core at 3.2%, bolstering expectations for two additional 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and stability thereafter, as labor markets show resilience without overheating—nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs but unemployment ticked to 4.1%. This trader consensus, backed by real capital, contrasts hawkish fiscal stimulus risks from incoming policy but prioritizes data-dependent easing; watch the January 29 FOMC meeting and PCE inflation gauge for potential shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問