Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, with the annual rate climbing to 3.8 percent amid a 17.9 percent surge in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5–3.75 percent target range during the July FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market conditions, including steady unemployment near 4.3 percent and solid nonfarm payrolls, reinforce the central bank’s data-dependent stance and its focus on returning inflation to the 2 percent objective. Market-implied odds of 93.5 percent for no change reflect this consensus, supported by the Fed’s April decision and recent communications emphasizing balanced risks. A sharper-than-anticipated decline in the upcoming May CPI release or softer June employment figures could introduce volatility, while the June FOMC statement may clarify whether policymakers maintain their current neutral policy path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 3.9%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 2.6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,586,691 Vol.
$5,586,691 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
3%
変更なし
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 3.9%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 2.6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,586,691 Vol.
$5,586,691 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$550,853 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$423,000 Vol.
3%
変更なし
$656,522 Vol.
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,407,271 Vol.
4%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$549,046 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, with the annual rate climbing to 3.8 percent amid a 17.9 percent surge in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5–3.75 percent target range during the July FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market conditions, including steady unemployment near 4.3 percent and solid nonfarm payrolls, reinforce the central bank’s data-dependent stance and its focus on returning inflation to the 2 percent objective. Market-implied odds of 93.5 percent for no change reflect this consensus, supported by the Fed’s April decision and recent communications emphasizing balanced risks. A sharper-than-anticipated decline in the upcoming May CPI release or softer June employment figures could introduce volatility, while the June FOMC statement may clarify whether policymakers maintain their current neutral policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$5,586,691終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, with the annual rate climbing to 3.8 percent amid a 17.9 percent surge in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5–3.75 percent target range during the July FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market conditions, including steady unemployment near 4.3 percent and solid nonfarm payrolls, reinforce the central bank’s data-dependent stance and its focus on returning inflation to the 2 percent objective. Market-implied odds of 93.5 percent for no change reflect this consensus, supported by the Fed’s April decision and recent communications emphasizing balanced risks. A sharper-than-anticipated decline in the upcoming May CPI release or softer June employment figures could introduce volatility, while the June FOMC statement may clarify whether policymakers maintain their current neutral policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$5,586,691終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, with the annual rate climbing to 3.8 percent amid a 17.9 percent surge in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5–3.75 percent target range during the July FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market conditions, including steady unemployment near 4.3 percent and solid nonfarm payrolls, reinforce the central bank’s data-dependent stance and its focus on returning inflation to the 2 percent objective. Market-implied odds of 93.5 percent for no change reflect this consensus, supported by the Fed’s April decision and recent communications emphasizing balanced risks. A sharper-than-anticipated decline in the upcoming May CPI release or softer June employment figures could introduce volatility, while the June FOMC statement may clarify whether policymakers maintain their current neutral policy path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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