Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy costs amid Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations for steady monetary policy. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and a resilient labor market supporting growth, market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change at the July 28-29 gathering. This consensus reflects incoming inflation and employment data outweighing any near-term easing signals. A sharper-than-expected cooling in core prices or significant softening in employment could still shift the path, though such developments appear limited ahead of the June meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 6.0%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$6,448,834 Vol.
$6,448,834 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
2%
変更なし
93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 6.0%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$6,448,834 Vol.
$6,448,834 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$705,136 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$615,721 Vol.
2%
変更なし
$816,623 Vol.
93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,568,035 Vol.
6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$743,320 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy costs amid Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations for steady monetary policy. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and a resilient labor market supporting growth, market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change at the July 28-29 gathering. This consensus reflects incoming inflation and employment data outweighing any near-term easing signals. A sharper-than-expected cooling in core prices or significant softening in employment could still shift the path, though such developments appear limited ahead of the June meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$6,448,834終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy costs amid Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations for steady monetary policy. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and a resilient labor market supporting growth, market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change at the July 28-29 gathering. This consensus reflects incoming inflation and employment data outweighing any near-term easing signals. A sharper-than-expected cooling in core prices or significant softening in employment could still shift the path, though such developments appear limited ahead of the June meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$6,448,834終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy costs amid Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations for steady monetary policy. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and a resilient labor market supporting growth, market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to no change at the July 28-29 gathering. This consensus reflects incoming inflation and employment data outweighing any near-term easing signals. A sharper-than-expected cooling in core prices or significant softening in employment could still shift the path, though such developments appear limited ahead of the June meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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