Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 99.4% implied probability that President-elect Trump will not attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by March 31, driven by Trump's repeated public disavowals and longstanding legal protections for Fed independence. In recent interviews since the election, Trump stated he has no plans to dismiss Powell, whose term extends to May 2026 and requires removal only "for cause" under federal statute—a high bar untested for chairs. No preparatory actions, such as nominations for replacements or public escalation, have emerged in the past week, reinforcing trader confidence amid the short post-inauguration window. Rare shifts could stem from unforeseen policy clashes, legal reinterpretations, or abrupt executive actions, though historical Fed insulation makes these unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$20,418 Vol.
$20,418 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$20,418 Vol.
$20,418 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
音量
$20,418終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$20,418終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 99.4% implied probability that President-elect Trump will not attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by March 31, driven by Trump's repeated public disavowals and longstanding legal protections for Fed independence. In recent interviews since the election, Trump stated he has no plans to dismiss Powell, whose term extends to May 2026 and requires removal only "for cause" under federal statute—a high bar untested for chairs. No preparatory actions, such as nominations for replacements or public escalation, have emerged in the past week, reinforcing trader confidence amid the short post-inauguration window. Rare shifts could stem from unforeseen policy clashes, legal reinterpretations, or abrupt executive actions, though historical Fed insulation makes these unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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