Recent soft September employment data showing just 29,000 jobs added alongside cooler-than-expected August PCE inflation at 3.4% have sharply reduced near-term tightening odds and reinforced trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds target range at 3.75-4.00% at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, resilient growth, and stable labor conditions near 4.1% unemployment continue to support market-implied odds of no rate cuts through year-end above 95%. The September FOMC minutes released October 7 and upcoming inflation and employment releases will provide further clarity on whether officials see scope for any easing before 2027.