President-elect Trump's reported selection of Kevin Warsh as his preferred nominee for Federal Reserve Chair has driven trader consensus to 95% on confirmation, reflecting Warsh's prior experience as a Fed governor from 2006–2011 and alignment with Trump's push for lower interest rates and Fed policy overhaul. With Republicans holding a Senate majority post-2024 elections, confirmation appears straightforward under standard procedures requiring simple majority approval following committee hearings. Remaining probabilities scatter across past nominees like Judy Shelton and current officials such as Jerome Powell or Christopher Waller, betting on surprises. Challenges could arise from Senate holds by moderates wary of Fed independence erosion, legal disputes over Powell's term ending in 2026, or a late pivot to alternatives like Scott Bessent amid transition negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ケビン・ウォーシュ 95.0%
ジュディ・シェルトン 1.9%
ミシェル・ボウマン 1.1%
リック・リーダー <1%
$13,576,650 Vol.
$13,576,650 Vol.
ケビン・ウォーシュ
95%
ジュディ・シェルトン
2%
ケビン・ハセット
<1%
クリストファー・ウォラー
<1%
ジェローム・パウエル
<1%
スティーブン・ミラン
<1%
スコット・ベセント
<1%
リック・リーダー
1%
ミシェル・ボウマン
1%
ケビン・ウォーシュ 95.0%
ジュディ・シェルトン 1.9%
ミシェル・ボウマン 1.1%
リック・リーダー <1%
$13,576,650 Vol.
$13,576,650 Vol.
ケビン・ウォーシュ
95%
ジュディ・シェルトン
2%
ケビン・ハセット
<1%
クリストファー・ウォラー
<1%
ジェローム・パウエル
<1%
スティーブン・ミラン
<1%
スコット・ベセント
<1%
リック・リーダー
1%
ミシェル・ボウマン
1%
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...President-elect Trump's reported selection of Kevin Warsh as his preferred nominee for Federal Reserve Chair has driven trader consensus to 95% on confirmation, reflecting Warsh's prior experience as a Fed governor from 2006–2011 and alignment with Trump's push for lower interest rates and Fed policy overhaul. With Republicans holding a Senate majority post-2024 elections, confirmation appears straightforward under standard procedures requiring simple majority approval following committee hearings. Remaining probabilities scatter across past nominees like Judy Shelton and current officials such as Jerome Powell or Christopher Waller, betting on surprises. Challenges could arise from Senate holds by moderates wary of Fed independence erosion, legal disputes over Powell's term ending in 2026, or a late pivot to alternatives like Scott Bessent amid transition negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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