Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き–据え置き–据え置き 100.0%
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き <1%
利下げ–利下げ–据え置き <1%
据え置き–利下げ–据え置き <1%
$695,645 Vol.
$695,645 Vol.
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き
いいえ
利下げ–利下げ–据え置き
いいえ
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き
はい
据え置き–利下げ–据え置き
いいえ
その他
いいえ
利下げ・据え置き・利下げ
いいえ
利下げ・利下げ・利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き 100.0%
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き <1%
利下げ–利下げ–据え置き <1%
据え置き–利下げ–据え置き <1%
$695,645 Vol.
$695,645 Vol.
利下げ–据え置き–据え置き
いいえ
利下げ–利下げ–据え置き
いいえ
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き
はい
据え置き–利下げ–据え置き
いいえ
その他
いいえ
利下げ・据え置き・利下げ
いいえ
利下げ・利下げ・利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
いいえ
据え置き–利下げ–利下げ
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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