Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for FOMC meetings in January, March, and April 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's actual decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% in January and March amid sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while the Fed's March Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% and signaled just one rate cut later in the year, bolstered by geopolitical tensions elevating risk premiums. CME FedWatch Tool shows over 99% odds of no change at the April 28–29 meeting. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer March nonfarm payrolls—due April 4—or sub-2% CPI on April 10 to revive cut expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日据え置き–据え置き–据え置き 98.0%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.2%
その他 <1%
$411,633 Vol.
$411,633 Vol.
2026/04/29
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き
98%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
1%
その他
1%
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き 98.0%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.2%
その他 <1%
$411,633 Vol.
$411,633 Vol.
2026/04/29
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き
$64,606 Vol.
98%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$170,467 Vol.
1%
その他
$136,573 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for FOMC meetings in January, March, and April 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's actual decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% in January and March amid sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while the Fed's March Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% and signaled just one rate cut later in the year, bolstered by geopolitical tensions elevating risk premiums. CME FedWatch Tool shows over 99% odds of no change at the April 28–29 meeting. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer March nonfarm payrolls—due April 4—or sub-2% CPI on April 10 to revive cut expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
音量
$411,633終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for FOMC meetings in January, March, and April 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's actual decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% in January and March amid sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while the Fed's March Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% and signaled just one rate cut later in the year, bolstered by geopolitical tensions elevating risk premiums. CME FedWatch Tool shows over 99% odds of no change at the April 28–29 meeting. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer March nonfarm payrolls—due April 4—or sub-2% CPI on April 10 to revive cut expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$411,633終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for FOMC meetings in January, March, and April 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve's actual decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% in January and March amid sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while the Fed's March Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% and signaled just one rate cut later in the year, bolstered by geopolitical tensions elevating risk premiums. CME FedWatch Tool shows over 99% odds of no change at the April 28–29 meeting. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer March nonfarm payrolls—due April 4—or sub-2% CPI on April 10 to revive cut expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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