Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range in January and March amid resilient economic activity and sticky inflation. February 2026 CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, while the March Summary of Economic Projections upgraded 2026 GDP growth to 2.4% and core PCE inflation to 2.7%, signaling policymakers' caution against premature easing. This strong positioning could face challenges from softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or weakening labor market indicators ahead of the April 29-30 meeting, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日据え置き–据え置き–据え置き 97.5%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.5%
その他 1.2%
$392,848 Vol.
$392,848 Vol.
2026/04/29
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き
98%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
2%
その他
1%
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き 97.5%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.5%
その他 1.2%
$392,848 Vol.
$392,848 Vol.
2026/04/29
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き
$48,787 Vol.
98%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$168,036 Vol.
2%
その他
$136,039 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range in January and March amid resilient economic activity and sticky inflation. February 2026 CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, while the March Summary of Economic Projections upgraded 2026 GDP growth to 2.4% and core PCE inflation to 2.7%, signaling policymakers' caution against premature easing. This strong positioning could face challenges from softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or weakening labor market indicators ahead of the April 29-30 meeting, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
音量
$392,848終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range in January and March amid resilient economic activity and sticky inflation. February 2026 CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, while the March Summary of Economic Projections upgraded 2026 GDP growth to 2.4% and core PCE inflation to 2.7%, signaling policymakers' caution against premature easing. This strong positioning could face challenges from softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or weakening labor market indicators ahead of the April 29-30 meeting, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$392,848終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range in January and March amid resilient economic activity and sticky inflation. February 2026 CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, while the March Summary of Economic Projections upgraded 2026 GDP growth to 2.4% and core PCE inflation to 2.7%, signaling policymakers' caution against premature easing. This strong positioning could face challenges from softer-than-expected March CPI data due April 10 or weakening labor market indicators ahead of the April 29-30 meeting, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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