Recent inflation data showing a rise to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy. With the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range and a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and solid payroll gains, Polymarket odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This 73.5% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that elevated price pressures outweigh any near-term growth concerns, consistent with analyst views of a prolonged hold through year-end and contrasting earlier 2025 expectations for easing. The upcoming June dot plot and subsequent CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 74%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
74%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
4%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 74%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$286 Vol.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$441 Vol.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$172 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$920 Vol.
74%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 Vol.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Vol.
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Vol.
4%
Other
$169 Vol.
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data showing a rise to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy. With the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range and a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and solid payroll gains, Polymarket odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This 73.5% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that elevated price pressures outweigh any near-term growth concerns, consistent with analyst views of a prolonged hold through year-end and contrasting earlier 2025 expectations for easing. The upcoming June dot plot and subsequent CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$2,626終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data showing a rise to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy. With the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range and a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and solid payroll gains, Polymarket odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This 73.5% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that elevated price pressures outweigh any near-term growth concerns, consistent with analyst views of a prolonged hold through year-end and contrasting earlier 2025 expectations for easing. The upcoming June dot plot and subsequent CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$2,626終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data showing a rise to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy. With the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range and a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and solid payroll gains, Polymarket odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This 73.5% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that elevated price pressures outweigh any near-term growth concerns, consistent with analyst views of a prolonged hold through year-end and contrasting earlier 2025 expectations for easing. The upcoming June dot plot and subsequent CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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