Elevated inflation readings, including May CPI near 3.8-4.2% headline and core above the 2% target amid energy price spikes and tariff effects, combined with a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment, anchor the 71% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The Fed has held the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026, with recent communications signaling a potential shift away from easing bias at the June 16-17 meeting amid firm data. Trader consensus, reflected in these odds versus lower probabilities for any cut sequences, prices in a steady policy path through September absent clear disinflation progress, while noting upside risks to rates if price pressures persist.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Cut 5.8%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
15%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
6%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Cut 5.8%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$139 Vol.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 Vol.
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 Vol.
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$895 Vol.
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 Vol.
15%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Vol.
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Vol.
6%
Other
$169 Vol.
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including May CPI near 3.8-4.2% headline and core above the 2% target amid energy price spikes and tariff effects, combined with a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment, anchor the 71% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The Fed has held the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026, with recent communications signaling a potential shift away from easing bias at the June 16-17 meeting amid firm data. Trader consensus, reflected in these odds versus lower probabilities for any cut sequences, prices in a steady policy path through September absent clear disinflation progress, while noting upside risks to rates if price pressures persist.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$2,210終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including May CPI near 3.8-4.2% headline and core above the 2% target amid energy price spikes and tariff effects, combined with a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment, anchor the 71% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The Fed has held the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026, with recent communications signaling a potential shift away from easing bias at the June 16-17 meeting amid firm data. Trader consensus, reflected in these odds versus lower probabilities for any cut sequences, prices in a steady policy path through September absent clear disinflation progress, while noting upside risks to rates if price pressures persist.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$2,210終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, including May CPI near 3.8-4.2% headline and core above the 2% target amid energy price spikes and tariff effects, combined with a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment, anchor the 71% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. The Fed has held the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026, with recent communications signaling a potential shift away from easing bias at the June 16-17 meeting amid firm data. Trader consensus, reflected in these odds versus lower probabilities for any cut sequences, prices in a steady policy path through September absent clear disinflation progress, while noting upside risks to rates if price pressures persist.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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