Market-implied odds heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, reflecting trader consensus that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range. This positioning stems from persistent inflation pressures, including April 2026 CPI readings near 3.8 percent year-over-year amid elevated energy costs from the Middle East conflict, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent. Recent FOMC communications and April minutes underscore a data-dependent stance that has pushed back any near-term easing, with futures markets now assigning over 95 percent probability to no change at the June 16–17 meeting. Key upcoming catalysts include the June dot plot, fresh CPI and payrolls data, and evolving guidance on the longer-run neutral rate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Cut–Pause–Cut 5.5%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
6%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
5%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Cut–Pause–Cut 5.5%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 Vol.
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 Vol.
6%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$172 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$126 Vol.
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$375 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$163 Vol.
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Vol.
5%
Other
$122 Vol.
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, reflecting trader consensus that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range. This positioning stems from persistent inflation pressures, including April 2026 CPI readings near 3.8 percent year-over-year amid elevated energy costs from the Middle East conflict, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent. Recent FOMC communications and April minutes underscore a data-dependent stance that has pushed back any near-term easing, with futures markets now assigning over 95 percent probability to no change at the June 16–17 meeting. Key upcoming catalysts include the June dot plot, fresh CPI and payrolls data, and evolving guidance on the longer-run neutral rate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$1,450終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, reflecting trader consensus that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range. This positioning stems from persistent inflation pressures, including April 2026 CPI readings near 3.8 percent year-over-year amid elevated energy costs from the Middle East conflict, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent. Recent FOMC communications and April minutes underscore a data-dependent stance that has pushed back any near-term easing, with futures markets now assigning over 95 percent probability to no change at the June 16–17 meeting. Key upcoming catalysts include the June dot plot, fresh CPI and payrolls data, and evolving guidance on the longer-run neutral rate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$1,450終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, reflecting trader consensus that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range. This positioning stems from persistent inflation pressures, including April 2026 CPI readings near 3.8 percent year-over-year amid elevated energy costs from the Middle East conflict, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent. Recent FOMC communications and April minutes underscore a data-dependent stance that has pushed back any near-term easing, with futures markets now assigning over 95 percent probability to no change at the June 16–17 meeting. Key upcoming catalysts include the June dot plot, fresh CPI and payrolls data, and evolving guidance on the longer-run neutral rate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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