Elevated inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, paired with a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment, underpins the 71% market-implied probability of no change at the October FOMC meeting. The Fed has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive meetings amid solid economic growth and Middle East-related supply pressures, with three dissents in July signaling hawkish sentiment that supports the 23.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike. Recent data releases show only modest cooling in CPI, keeping the market-implied rate path aligned with a cautious pause rather than cuts, while forward-looking factors like upcoming August inflation figures and September employment data remain key swing elements before the October 27–28 decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き 71%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 24%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ 1.4%
$600,716 Vol.
$600,716 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
5%
据え置き
71%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
24%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
1%
据え置き 71%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 24%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ 1.4%
$600,716 Vol.
$600,716 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$123,344 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$154,637 Vol.
5%
据え置き
$135,914 Vol.
71%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$132,407 Vol.
24%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$54,415 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, paired with a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment, underpins the 71% market-implied probability of no change at the October FOMC meeting. The Fed has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive meetings amid solid economic growth and Middle East-related supply pressures, with three dissents in July signaling hawkish sentiment that supports the 23.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike. Recent data releases show only modest cooling in CPI, keeping the market-implied rate path aligned with a cautious pause rather than cuts, while forward-looking factors like upcoming August inflation figures and September employment data remain key swing elements before the October 27–28 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
音量
$600,716終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, paired with a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment, underpins the 71% market-implied probability of no change at the October FOMC meeting. The Fed has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive meetings amid solid economic growth and Middle East-related supply pressures, with three dissents in July signaling hawkish sentiment that supports the 23.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike. Recent data releases show only modest cooling in CPI, keeping the market-implied rate path aligned with a cautious pause rather than cuts, while forward-looking factors like upcoming August inflation figures and September employment data remain key swing elements before the October 27–28 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$600,716終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, paired with a stable labor market showing 4.1% unemployment, underpins the 71% market-implied probability of no change at the October FOMC meeting. The Fed has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive meetings amid solid economic growth and Middle East-related supply pressures, with three dissents in July signaling hawkish sentiment that supports the 23.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike. Recent data releases show only modest cooling in CPI, keeping the market-implied rate path aligned with a cautious pause rather than cuts, while forward-looking factors like upcoming August inflation figures and September employment data remain key swing elements before the October 27–28 decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問