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政治·トランプ

トランプ氏は3月31日までに大統領に就任しますか？

Market icon
政治·トランプ

トランプ氏は3月31日までに大統領に就任しますか？

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$12,400,153 Vol.

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$12,400,153 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.9% on Trump exiting the presidency by March 31, driven by the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, resignation signals, or health emergencies in his second term, now over 14 months in following January 2025 inauguration. Recent partisan calls, such as a Democratic senator's January push for incapacity declaration and speculative predictions like James Carville's mid-March claim of post-midterm frustration, have failed to gain traction amid Republican congressional majorities blocking removal paths. With just days until resolution, realistic shifts would require sudden developments like a medical crisis, executive order invoking succession, or unprecedented cabinet revolt—none evident in current reporting.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.9% on Trump exiting the presidency by March 31, driven by the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, resignation signals, or health emergencies in his second term, now over 14 months in following January 2025 inauguration. Recent partisan calls, such as a Democratic senator's January push for incapacity declaration and speculative predictions like James Carville's mid-March claim of post-midterm frustration, have failed to gain traction amid Republican congressional majorities blocking removal paths. With just days until resolution, realistic shifts would require sudden developments like a medical crisis, executive order invoking succession, or unprecedented cabinet revolt—none evident in current reporting.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.9% on Trump exiting the presidency by March 31, driven by the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, resignation signals, or health emergencies in his second term, now over 14 months in following January 2025 inauguration. Recent partisan calls, such as a Democratic senator's January push for incapacity declaration and speculative predictions like James Carville's mid-March claim of post-midterm frustration, have failed to gain traction amid Republican congressional majorities blocking removal paths. With just days until resolution, realistic shifts would require sudden developments like a medical crisis, executive order invoking succession, or unprecedented cabinet revolt—none evident in current reporting.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.9% on Trump exiting the presidency by March 31, driven by the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, resignation signals, or health emergencies in his second term, now over 14 months in following January 2025 inauguration. Recent partisan calls, such as a Democratic senator's January push for incapacity declaration and speculative predictions like James Carville's mid-March claim of post-midterm frustration, have failed to gain traction amid Republican congressional majorities blocking removal paths. With just days until resolution, realistic shifts would require sudden developments like a medical crisis, executive order invoking succession, or unprecedented cabinet revolt—none evident in current reporting.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「トランプ氏は3月31日までに大統領に就任しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「トランプは3月31日までに大統領を退任するか？」で0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「トランプ氏は3月31日までに大統領に就任しますか？」は$12.4 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「トランプ氏は3月31日までに大統領に就任しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「トランプ氏は3月31日までに大統領に就任しますか？」の現在のリーダーは「トランプは3月31日までに大統領を退任するか？」でわずか0%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「トランプ氏は3月31日までに大統領に就任しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。