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Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

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政治·ガバナーのシャットダウン

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

55% chance
Polymarket
NEW
55% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus reflects a 54.5% implied probability for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by the ongoing late March severe weather pattern, including high winds forecast for New York-area airports (EWR, JFK, LGA) and Philadelphia (PHL), plus potential thunderstorms in Chicago (ORD, MDW) and Indianapolis as noted in the FAA's March 27 air traffic report. Mid-March blizzards and storms already caused thousands of cancellations, amplifying caution amid spring break travel surges and United Airlines' 5% capacity cuts due to soaring fuel prices. The closely contested odds stem from models indicating lower widespread severe risk on the 31st despite tornado outlooks through the week, with FAA advisories for possible LAX/SAN and ski country delays adding uncertainty. Intensifying forecasts or new ground stops could push toward Yes, while clearing skies and stable airspace favor No.

Trader consensus reflects a 54.5% implied probability for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by the ongoing late March severe weather pattern, including high winds forecast for New York-area airports (EWR, JFK, LGA) and Philadelphia (PHL), plus potential thunderstorms in Chicago (ORD, MDW) and Indianapolis as noted in the FAA's March 27 air traffic report. Mid-March blizzards and storms already caused thousands of cancellations, amplifying caution amid spring break travel surges and United Airlines' 5% capacity cuts due to soaring fuel prices. The closely contested odds stem from models indicating lower widespread severe risk on the 31st despite tornado outlooks through the week, with FAA advisories for possible LAX/SAN and ski country delays adding uncertainty. Intensifying forecasts or new ground stops could push toward Yes, while clearing skies and stable airspace favor No.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus reflects a 54.5% implied probability for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by the ongoing late March severe weather pattern, including high winds forecast for New York-area airports (EWR, JFK, LGA) and Philadelphia (PHL), plus potential thunderstorms in Chicago (ORD, MDW) and Indianapolis as noted in the FAA's March 27 air traffic report. Mid-March blizzards and storms already caused thousands of cancellations, amplifying caution amid spring break travel surges and United Airlines' 5% capacity cuts due to soaring fuel prices. The closely contested odds stem from models indicating lower widespread severe risk on the 31st despite tornado outlooks through the week, with FAA advisories for possible LAX/SAN and ski country delays adding uncertainty. Intensifying forecasts or new ground stops could push toward Yes, while clearing skies and stable airspace favor No.

Trader consensus reflects a 54.5% implied probability for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by the ongoing late March severe weather pattern, including high winds forecast for New York-area airports (EWR, JFK, LGA) and Philadelphia (PHL), plus potential thunderstorms in Chicago (ORD, MDW) and Indianapolis as noted in the FAA's March 27 air traffic report. Mid-March blizzards and storms already caused thousands of cancellations, amplifying caution amid spring break travel surges and United Airlines' 5% capacity cuts due to soaring fuel prices. The closely contested odds stem from models indicating lower widespread severe risk on the 31st despite tornado outlooks through the week, with FAA advisories for possible LAX/SAN and ski country delays adding uncertainty. Intensifying forecasts or new ground stops could push toward Yes, while clearing skies and stable airspace favor No.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?」はPolymarket上の予測市場で、トレーダーがこのイベントが起こるかどうかに基づいて「はい」または「いいえ」のシェアを売買します。コミュニティによる現在の確率は「Yes」に対して55%です。例えば、「はい」が55¢で取引されている場合、市場はこのイベントが発生する確率を55%と集合的に評価しています。これらのオッズはトレーダーが新しい展開や情報に反応するにつれて継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 27, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?」で取引するには、答えが「はい」か「いいえ」かを選ぶだけです。各側には市場の暗示確率を反映する現在の価格があります。金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が「はい」と決まった場合、各シェアは$1を支払います。「いいえ」と決まった場合、「はい」のシェアは$0を支払います。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却して利益を確定したり、損失を抑えたりすることもできます。

「Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?」の現在の確率は「Yes」に対して55%です。これはPolymarketコミュニティがこのイベントの発生確率を55%と現在評価していることを意味します。これらのオッズは実際の取引に基づいてリアルタイムで更新され、市場の期待を継続的に反映するシグナルを提供します。

「Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。