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共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか?

Market icon

共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか?

$550,947 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$550,947 Vol.

Polymarket

2026年3月31日

$30,793 Vol.

1%

2026年12月31日

$4,180 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Senate Republicans, holding a majority under Leader John Thune, face intensifying pressure to invoke the nuclear option—a simple majority vote to reinterpret Senate rules and eliminate the 60-vote filibuster threshold on legislation—amid Democratic opposition to the SAVE Act voter registration reform bill. Recent reports from March 19 highlight active deliberations to bypass the filibuster, spurred by President Trump's calls and House GOP demands, though Thune has emphasized preserving the rule and lacks sufficient support, with senators like Collins voicing reservations. No such change has occurred for legislative matters since prior uses targeted judicial nominees in 2013 and 2017; traders eye upcoming floor votes or procedural maneuvers that could tip the balance before potential year-end deadlines.

Senate Republicans, holding a majority under Leader John Thune, face intensifying pressure to invoke the nuclear option—a simple majority vote to reinterpret Senate rules and eliminate the 60-vote filibuster threshold on legislation—amid Democratic opposition to the SAVE Act voter registration reform bill. Recent reports from March 19 highlight active deliberations to bypass the filibuster, spurred by President Trump's calls and House GOP demands, though Thune has emphasized preserving the rule and lacks sufficient support, with senators like Collins voicing reservations. No such change has occurred for legislative matters since prior uses targeted judicial nominees in 2013 and 2017; traders eye upcoming floor votes or procedural maneuvers that could tip the balance before potential year-end deadlines.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Senate Republicans, holding a majority under Leader John Thune, face intensifying pressure to invoke the nuclear option—a simple majority vote to reinterpret Senate rules and eliminate the 60-vote filibuster threshold on legislation—amid Democratic opposition to the SAVE Act voter registration reform bill. Recent reports from March 19 highlight active deliberations to bypass the filibuster, spurred by President Trump's calls and House GOP demands, though Thune has emphasized preserving the rule and lacks sufficient support, with senators like Collins voicing reservations. No such change has occurred for legislative matters since prior uses targeted judicial nominees in 2013 and 2017; traders eye upcoming floor votes or procedural maneuvers that could tip the balance before potential year-end deadlines.

Senate Republicans, holding a majority under Leader John Thune, face intensifying pressure to invoke the nuclear option—a simple majority vote to reinterpret Senate rules and eliminate the 60-vote filibuster threshold on legislation—amid Democratic opposition to the SAVE Act voter registration reform bill. Recent reports from March 19 highlight active deliberations to bypass the filibuster, spurred by President Trump's calls and House GOP demands, though Thune has emphasized preserving the rule and lacks sufficient support, with senators like Collins voicing reservations. No such change has occurred for legislative matters since prior uses targeted judicial nominees in 2013 and 2017; traders eye upcoming floor votes or procedural maneuvers that could tip the balance before potential year-end deadlines.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか?」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年12月31日」で51%、次いで「2026年3月31日」が1%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、51¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に51%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか?」は$550.9Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Oct 1, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「2026年12月31日」で51%であり、市場がこの結果に51%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「2026年3月31日」で1%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。