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政治·トランプ

共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか？

Market icon
政治·トランプ

共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか？

$550,758 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$550,758 Vol.

Polymarket

2026年3月31日

$30,604 Vol.

1%

2026年12月31日

$4,180 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか？」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年12月31日」で51%、次いで「2026年3月31日」が1%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、51¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に51%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

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「共和党は、フィリバスターを破るために「核オプション」を使用しますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「2026年12月31日」で51%であり、市場がこの結果に51%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「2026年3月31日」で1%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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