Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.7% as of March 31, reflecting the Trump administration's ongoing 10% global baseline tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which applies to most Chinese imports and has held steady since early 2026 at an effective average of about 10.5%. Recent trackers as of March 20–24 confirm no executive orders, USTR announcements, or court rulings have altered this since the Supreme Court's February litigation outcomes preserved key measures amid Section 301 remnants on select goods. Stability persists absent escalation signals, though a sudden presidential proclamation, congressional trade bill, or WTO dispute resolution before the deadline could shift rates higher via reciprocal hikes or lower through suspensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日5〜15% 96.6%
15~25% 2.3%
5%未満 <1%
25〜35% <1%
$714,494 Vol.
$714,494 Vol.
5%未満
1%
5〜15%
97%
15~25%
2%
25〜35%
1%
35%以上
<1%
5〜15% 96.6%
15~25% 2.3%
5%未満 <1%
25〜35% <1%
$714,494 Vol.
$714,494 Vol.
5%未満
1%
5〜15%
97%
15~25%
2%
25〜35%
1%
35%以上
<1%
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
マーケット開始日: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.7% as of March 31, reflecting the Trump administration's ongoing 10% global baseline tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which applies to most Chinese imports and has held steady since early 2026 at an effective average of about 10.5%. Recent trackers as of March 20–24 confirm no executive orders, USTR announcements, or court rulings have altered this since the Supreme Court's February litigation outcomes preserved key measures amid Section 301 remnants on select goods. Stability persists absent escalation signals, though a sudden presidential proclamation, congressional trade bill, or WTO dispute resolution before the deadline could shift rates higher via reciprocal hikes or lower through suspensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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