President-elect Trump's firm campaign pledge for a 10% universal import tariff, executable via executive authority under trade laws like Section 301, drives the 97.9% "Yes" implied probability for it being in effect by March 31, 2025. Recent transition announcements and public statements reaffirm swift post-inauguration implementation, with no congressional approval needed, bolstering trader consensus on minimal delays. Historical precedents of rapid tariff actions by prior administrations further support this pricing. Realistic downside risks include court challenges from affected industries, shifting geopolitical priorities prompting exemptions, or minor timeline extensions beyond the deadline, though traders price these as low-probability events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$61,131 Vol.
$61,131 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$61,131 Vol.
$61,131 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
音量
$61,131終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
音量
$61,131終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President-elect Trump's firm campaign pledge for a 10% universal import tariff, executable via executive authority under trade laws like Section 301, drives the 97.9% "Yes" implied probability for it being in effect by March 31, 2025. Recent transition announcements and public statements reaffirm swift post-inauguration implementation, with no congressional approval needed, bolstering trader consensus on minimal delays. Historical precedents of rapid tariff actions by prior administrations further support this pricing. Realistic downside risks include court challenges from affected industries, shifting geopolitical priorities prompting exemptions, or minor timeline extensions beyond the deadline, though traders price these as low-probability events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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