Science predictions & odds

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Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Science

Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

99%

↑500

$3m 出来高

$1m today

$17.6k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Science

Politics

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

10%

$1m 出来高

$65.3k today

$245k Liq.

88

Ends in 11 months

Measles cases in U.S. by January 31?

Science

Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. by January 31?

100%

175

$155k 出来高

$57.7k Liq.

Ends in 9 days

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 25?

Science

Weather

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 25?

69%

0

$114k 出来高

$12.6k Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

Science

SpaceX

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

7%

$396k 出来高

$73.4k Liq.

9

Ends in 11 months

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Science

Weather

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

45%

4

$1m 出来高

$44.7k Liq.

14

Ends in 11 months

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Science

SpaceX

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

36%

5-6

$43.8k 出来高

$4.1k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Science

Weather

January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

47%

1.10–1.14ºC

$391k 出来高

$33.7k Liq.

Ends in 19 days

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Science

Weather

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

89%

March 31

$95.1k 出来高

$8.9k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

2026 January 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Science

Weather

2026 January 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

98%

4th or lower

$313k 出来高

$45.0k Liq.

Ends in 19 days

How many Tornadoes in the US in January?

Science

Weather

How many Tornadoes in the US in January?

90%

<30

$485k 出来高

$13.1k Liq.

Ends in 19 days

How many SpaceX launches in January?

Science

SpaceX

How many SpaceX launches in January?

89%

12 or more

$61.6k 出来高

$10.7k Liq.

Ends in 9 days

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Science

Weather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

39%

11–13

$349k 出来高

$25.3k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Science

SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

64%

Super Heavy booster explodes?

$544k 出来高

$7.6k Liq.

3

Ends in 9 days

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Science

SpaceX

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

2%

$33.0k 出来高

$25.6k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

How many inches of snow in NYC this weekend? (Jan 24-26)

Science

Weather

How many inches of snow in NYC this weekend? (Jan 24-26)

27%

6-8

$9.5k 出来高

$24.6k Liq.

1

Ends in 4 days

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

Science

Weather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

64%

8+

$791k 出来高

$24.7k Liq.

10

Ends in 5 months

Precipitation in Seattle in January?

Science

Weather

Precipitation in Seattle in January?

37%

<3"

$10.2k 出来高

$4.5k Liq.

1

Ends in 9 days

Human moon landing in 2026?

Science

Culture

Human moon landing in 2026?

6%

$23.0k 出来高

$23.6k Liq.

10

Ends in 11 months

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 2, 2026?

Science

Pandemics

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 2, 2026?

70%

50 - 60

$1.1k 出来高

$1.7k Liq.

Ends in about 16 hours